Written by: Ray Butler
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We have officially hit the home stretch of my 2020 top-200 prospect list, with only four installments remaining (including this one). There’s no prospect remedy for the Hump Day blues better than checking out Tony Gonsolin’s flow, so allow those luscious locks to set the stage for twenty new prospects to start your Wednesday.
Before you dive in, make sure you’re up to date on the first 120 prospects published from this list. You can read about my #81-100 prospects here, my #101-120 prospects here, my #121-140 prospects here, my #141-160 prospects here, my #161-180 prospects here and my #181-200 prospects here. That’s 100 prospects and over 20,000 words worth of content for those of you keeping score at home. Several prospects in the bottom half of my top-200 were also recently discussed on Episode 3 of the Prospects 365 Fantasy Baseball Podcast.
Let’s get to it.
80. Clarke Schmidt, SP, NYY. Age: 24
Schmidt was unleashed for the first time as a professional pitcher in 2019, and the results were quite savory. The 24-year-old missed bats (27.2 K%), limited walks (7.5 BB%) and suppressed damaging contact (55.0 GB%). Those rates are basically the holy trinity of surface analytics that we cherish even at the big league level. Of course, Schmidt was a bit old for the Florida State League, so the fantastic Eastern League numbers post-promotion were quite re-assuring. With potential for four pitches that grade anywhere from average to plus, Schmidt is able to attack both right and left handed hitters without any sign of split issues. There may not be ace upside here, but the right-hander has reliable, mid-tier SP3 written all over him. We need to see the numbers over a full, unrestricted season of work, but Schmidt appears to be well on his way to joining the rotation in the Bronx. He’s very underrated player for a Yankees prospect with his pedigree. Yankees Rank: 3rd
79. Edward Cabrera, SP, MIA. Age: 22
Cabrera popped in High-A, got promoted and maintained his gains in Double-A to become a top-100 prospect in 2019. The right-hander totaled 96.2 IP between the pair of levels, striking out 30.3% of the batters he faced (22.2 K-BB%) while posting a 2.23 ERA (3.06 FIP). The 22-year-old possesses two dynamic pitches that serve two separate, distinct purposes. Cabrera’s fastball sits 93-95 (T100) with tremendous arm-side run. The pitch will never produce an elite Whiff% against big league hitters, but it will break its fair share of bats while inducing lots of soft contact. The breaking ball is the moneymaker. A low-80s bender with slurve-like tendencies, the pitch is viable against both righties (.169 BA) and lefties (.216 BA) while also acting as Cabrera’s punch out pitch. He also throws a changeup that made strides in 2019; it could eventually act as a secondary weapon vLHB the second and third time thru orders. You’ll run into a scout here and there who believes Cabrera is best suited for the bullpen, but the 22-year-old has an arsenal for starting and the Marlins have no incentive to make that move anyways. Miami can justify keeping the right-hander in the minors for the entirety of the 2020 season if they’d like (though they shouldn’t), but Cabrera will take the ball every fifth day at the MLB level at some point of his Age 23 season in 2021. Marlins Rank: 5th
78. Deivi Garcia, SP, NYY. Age: 20
Garcia is now at the top of the minor league ladder as a 20-year-old pitching prospect, an impressive feat no matter the skill level or pedigree. But the right-hander is also quite talented, striking out a jaw-dropping 34.0% of the hitters he faced last season (22.8 K-BB%) while posting a 4.28 ERA (note the 3.28 FIP) in 111.1 IP between High-A, Double-A and Triple-A. Garcia’s fastball is analytically moderate, but he can rev it up to 97 mph when he needs it. More importantly, Garcia pitches from a really unique angle (similar to Chris Sale, but from the third base side) that is both a very uncomfortable look for right-handed hitters and a very awkward look for lefties. The curveball is the best secondary pitch, flashing double plus at times with elite spin. The slider and changeup both flash above average, giving Garcia a second weapon to disarm hitters on either side of the plate. All four pitches are more than capable of missing their fair share of bats. Unfortunately, the 20-year-old has two things working against him: the command is fringe average at best, and the frame (5-foot-9, 165 lbs.) means Garcia will likely never reach 200 IP as a big league pitcher. In an ideal setting, the right-hander is a Bulker who pitches five innings a week and racks up strikeouts and wins for your fantasy team. As a member of a Yankees organization that will be competing for World Series titles for the foreseeable future, Garcia could become a multi-inning reliever, capable of dominating a lineup one time thru the order. In all likelihood, this is a 100-120 IP arm in the Bronx that plays as a Swiss army knife of sorts. That’s extremely valuable in real life, but it’ll likely leave you longing for more in dynasty leagues. Yankees Rank: 2nd
77. Heliot Ramos, OF, SF. Age: 20
The real-life floor for Ramos is a little lower now than it was a year ago, and that’s caused me to ease off the pedal a bit with his ranking. With an extremely thick lower half, the 20-year-old is built like a running back. Unfortunately, he’ll likely be graded as an average runner as early as this season, and stolen bases are unlikely to be a big part of his game in the near and distant future. He’s also likely destined for right field defensively, which means he’ll really need to hit in order to project as more than a role 5 in real life. Luckily, Ramos posted a 137 wRC+ between the California League and Eastern League as a 19-year-old, which was aided greatly by 16 home runs and a near double digit walk rate. There’s some swing and miss here, so the batting average may settle a little closer to .250 than .300 against big league pitching someday. Still, this is a potential 30-homer bat capable of hitting the ball over the fence in any part of the park. For now, I’m not worried about what Triples Alley may do to Ramos’ right center field sweet spot. Giants Rank: 4th
76. Sean Murphy, C, OAK. Age: 25
Fact: Josh Phegley played in 106 games for the Athletics last season, accumulating 342 plate appearances and a whopping 0.3 fWAR in the process. Murphy finally received a legitimate big league opportunity in September, playing in 20 games and accruing 60 plate appearances along the way. He was worth 0.6 fWAR. Injuries have kept the 25-year-old away from the playing field numerous times throughout his professional career, and he’s only surpassed 400 plate appearances in a season once since being selected in the 3rd round of the 2016 draft. Murphy delivered offensively post-promotion, reaching base a third of a time while hitting four home runs in just 20 games; the 132 wRC+ nearly mirrors his mark from Triple-A earlier in the season. The defensive skills continue to be strong, and Murphy should become the primary catcher in Oakland beginning on Opening Day this season. Like most catchers, Murphy will never hit for a notably high average thanks to a pull-heavy approach and a strikeout rate that should hover between 20 and 25 percent. But with consistently impressive Hard% and exit velocities, something along the lines of .260 BA/.340 OBP/20 HR should become the norm with the current offensive environment. If Murphy ever elevates the ball more frequently, 25-30 home runs are not outside the realm of possibility. Athletics Rank: 3rd
75. Alek Manoah, SP, TOR. Age: 22
When I watch Manoah on video, the first word that comes to mind is ‘explosive’. The fastball sits 94-97 T98 with above average spin. It’s particularly deadly in the top of the zone, where it rides above barrels in two-strike counts. The slider is equally effective, devastating right-handed hitters with a sharp, sudden bite that tunnels well with his heater. The changeup is currently just an average offering; the Blue Jays will likely prioritize the development of that pitch early in Manoah’s career, but for now, I’ll be interested to see the split disparity between righties and lefties. The 22-year-old restructured his frame prior to his final season at West Virginia, a change that more easily allowed evaluators to believe he could be a >150 IP arm someday. It’s a strikeout heavy SP3 profile with a chance for more if the changeup ever takes the next step. I’m hopeful Manoah is placed at High-A Dunedin to begin his first full season as a professional. FYPD Rank: 11th, Blue Jays Rank: 3rd
74. Nick Lodolo, SP, CIN. Age: 22
Say what you will about the Reds’ ability to develop position player prospects, but it’s hard to not be increasingly excited about Lodolo’s outlook following the Reds’ hiring of Kyle Boddy this offseason. The 18.1 IP in the Pioneer and Midwest Leagues post-draft are a silly evaluator of any advanced college arm, so let’s talk about the southpaw’s stuff instead. Depending on who you ask, Lodolo either has two plus pitches (fastball and slider) or three (a changeup he doesn’t love to use). The body is good and projectable, and those who are highest on him believe additional added weight to the frame will greatly assist him in reaching the upside of a SP2. I’m more inclined to believe the ceiling is SP3, but he’s certainly in an organization with decision makers capable of helping him exceed that mark. The 22-year-old will likely begin his 2020 campaign in the Florida State League, though the Reds could be aggressive and push him to the Southern League to begin his first full professional season. Either way, Lodolo should be knocking on the door of big league impact a year from now. FYPD Rank: 10th, Reds Rank: 1st
73. Jordan Balazovic, SP, MIN. Age: 21
When I watch Balazovic pitch, the phrase that comes to mind is ‘sneaky explosiveness’. The 21-year-old misses right-handed bats with his slider and left-handed bats with his curveball, both of which grade above average. The heater is a low-90s (T97) offering with pedestrian analytics, but Balazovic’s unorthodox mechanics and excellent extension allow the pitch to play-up more than one would assume when evaluating the spin rate. The changeup is currently a fringe-average offering that mostly acts as a secondary weapon versus lefties. Balazovic popped so hard in the Midwest League to begin the 2019 season the Twins quickly realized he probably should have been placed in the Florida State League. After he was promoted, the right-hander kept cooking: 73.0 IP, 2.84 ERA (2.28 FIP), 32.2 K% (25.2 K-BB%) in 14 starts. Not bad for an Age 20 season in High-A. This arsenal will always rely on the explosiveness of the breaking balls, but that’s the direction MLB pitching is trending towards anyways. Some are concerned the right-hander will deal with injuries throughout his career thanks to a unique arm motion and some violence throughout the delivery, but they also acknowledge there’s been no sign of ailments whatsoever to this point. There’s mid-tier SP3 upside here. Twins Rank: 4th
72.Tony Gonsolin, SP, LAD. Age: 25
Imagine being a 25-year-old, top-100 prospect who just completed their first stint in the big leagues, posting a 2.93 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 22.7 K% in 40.0 IP while pitching for one of the league’s best teams. Now envision this prospect indisputably being on the outside looking in for a rotation spot (and perhaps a spot on the big league roster altogether) the following season. That’s Tony Gonsolin, who will likely start in Triple-A for the Dodgers in 2020 despite the fact he’d be a mid-rotation starter for 20 other MLB teams. The ‘opportunity’ portion of prospect evaluation sucks in this particular case, but I’m betting on the stuff to shine through in 2020 just as it did last season. The right-hander features four pitches—a fastball, splitter, slider and curveball—all of which he threw more than 10% of the time at the big league level last season. Those pitches had expected batting averages of .272, .220, .108 and .086 respectively. The Dodgers are optimization kings, and I’d expect Gonsolin to throw his fastball less in the future (albeit slightly) in favor of his secondary pitches. With Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urías, David Price, Dustin May and Ross Stripling figuring to be Los Angeles’ prime candidates to fill rotations slot, a deadline trade would have an unspeakable impact on Gonsolin’s fantasy value in 2020 and beyond. If he remains with the Dodgers, the 25-year-old will be a plug-and-play whenever he gets opportunities with the big league club. Unfortunately, as it currently stands, most of those chances this season could come from the bullpen. Dodgers Rank: 3rd
Have you weaponized your Twitter for the 2020 baseball season?
71. José Urquidy, SP, HOU. Age: 24
Do you have players you associate with other players for no real reason? I’ll always associate Urquidy with Tony Gonsolin, who you just read about. Both exploded onto the scene in 2019. Both made their rankings debut on the same prospect list. Most importantly, both now have Statcast numbers and analytics that support their ‘stuff’ and process. Having hyped Urquidy throughout most of the 2019 season, it was amazingly fun to watch the right-hander post a 0.90 ERA and strike out 12 in 10 postseason innings pitched. Of course, that was headlined by the 24-year-old throwing five scoreless innings in Game 4 of the World Series, striking out four while only allowing two base runners. Having ranked the right-hander 78th on my end-of-season prospect list, his success should have come by no surprise to myself or any of my readers. Pessimistically (and selfishly), however, I knew his stellar performance on the sport’s biggest stage would cause an ADP inflation in 2020. Luckily, Urquidy should enter the new season as a front-runner to secure a rotation spot in the Astros’ rotation. The three-pitch mix of a four seam, slider and changeup should allow him to avoid glaring split issues vLHB, and I’m hopeful the usage of the dominant slider he showcased versus the Nationals in the World Series continues to tick-up (17.2% usage in the big league regular season in 2019). The pitch should become his best weapon against righties. As long as he gets the ball every fifth day for the Astros, he should be a fantasy asset regardless of league depth or format. Astros Rank: 2nd
70. Hunter Bishop, OF, SF. Age: 21
Two common fears I heard about Bishop this offseason when I fished around for his exit velocities from Arizona State and the Northwest League: the 2019 performance fell-off against Pac 12 pitching, and some organizations were turned off due to a small sample of success. What can’t be denied are the raw tools. The 21-year-old possesses plus raw power and plus speed, both of which could potentially slot at center field defensively. From a fantasy standpoint, this profile will solely hinge on Bishop’s ability to put the ball in play. Thankfully, the hit tool will never need to arrive at average in order for the outfielder’s other, fantasy-relevant tools to play. More so than the other 2019 draftees in the top-100 of this list, the 2020 season will really tip the scale on Bishop’s stock moving forward. The variance in the range outcomes—even from an unspectacular spot on this list—should give you anxiety. FYPD Rank: 9th, Giants Rank: 3rd
69. Triston Casas, 1B, BOS. Age: 20
People don’t realize how good Casas was in 2019. Hindered by a mechanical issue I’ll discuss shortly, the first baseman slashed just .208/.284/.364 with 2 home runs and a 35.1 K% in the first month of the season. The issue? Casas was extremely ‘squatty’, to the extent the knee bend was hindering both the power and bat-to-ball skills. From May 1st until the end of the season (98 games), the first baseman slashed .267/.364/.506 with 18 home runs and a 21.1 K%–all of which was fueled by a more upright stance. Those are gigantic gains for a prospect playing in a league with an average age 2.5 (and then 3.6 post-promotion) years older than him. Perhaps as a reward for his exceptional improvement, the 20-year-old was promoted to the Carolina League for the final week of the regular season. All put together, Casas posted the second best Hard% of any teenage prospect in the minor leagues with north of 300 plate appearances last season (35.7%, trailing only Julio Rodriguez). That seems significant. It’ll never be a high AVG profile, but Casas should continue to post double-digit walk rates, making him extremely valuable in OBP leagues. Of course, the on base skills are simply a complement to the momentous 80-grade raw power. With 20 home runs in 120 games as a teenager playing full season ball (not to mention his April struggles), he’s certainly off to a great start unlocking that power in-game. Originally a third baseman, Casas should someday be a valuable asset defensively as a first baseman at the big league level. If you can live with the likelihood of a .250 or .260 AVG at the big league level, your Casas arrow should be pointing upwards as we enter the 2020 season. Red Sox Rank: 2nd
68. Daulton Varsho, OF/C, ARI. Age: 23
A week or so before last summer’s trade deadline, I began hearing whispers that Varsho might play some center field throughout the final month of the Southern League regular season. Those whispers ended up being true, and the 23-year-old started four games in center in August. I watched Varsho live in 2019 more than any prospect writer in the entire world (it’s my crowning achievement tbh). Several folks have reached out for my opinion on the defensive skills behind the plate, and my answer is always the same: meh. You notice the athleticism immediately when evaluating the 23-year-old’s defense. There are quick movements, but he’s not always technically sound. The arm is below average, and it showed both in frequency of attempted stolen bases (64) and lack of success hindering the running game (20%). The receiving skills are adequate, but I always got the vibe Varsho would thrive as an everyday player who caught 1-2 games per week. Regardless of future defensive home, the offensive upside here is enormous. I actually like the fact the Pull% decreased in 2019 because it didn’t hinder the power whatsoever (the ISO actually increased greatly from .164 to .220) and it allows the on base skills to better mimic a player with Varsho’s speed. At his best, the 23-year-old can be a .280 BA/.350 OBP/20 HR/20 SB hitter at the big league level. Those numbers hold redraft value regardless of the defensive position. Diamondbacks Rank: 5th
67. Joey Bart, C, SF. Age: 23
I took some heat for ‘hating’ Bart by ranking him 81st on my 2019 end-of-season prospect list. I explained my reasoning in a ‘behind the scenes’ article about the list, and it’s worth reading now since the 23-year-old is ranked similarly on this list. A .250 BA with 30 home runs might make Bart a top-5 catcher in redraft leagues, but that doesn’t make him an elite prospect nor a player who’s highly coveted from a fantasy sense. Why should positional scarcity from the least important slot on your fantasy team lead us to ranking Bart more favorably than higher-upside prospects who play positions that more-highly correlate with fantasy success? Couldn’t be me. I firmly believe the 23-year-old will be an above average big league catcher, and his inclusion in my top-100 speaks to that. But a more aggressive ranking would mean we’re banking on >.320 BABIPs from a slow-running catcher moving forward, and I can’t commit to that. Giants Rank: 2nd
Two thirds of my 2020 high-value active player list has now been published. You can check out my high-value infielders here and my high-value outfielders here.
66. Alek Thomas, OF, ARI. Age: 19
I know it’s a cliché upside comp, but I can’t help but see Andrew Benintendi when I watch Thomas and project his ceiling. When you look at the outfielder, you assume sum-of-the-parts. You might even throw the word ‘gritty’ around. But thanks to a thick lower half and plus bat speed, there’s more explosion here than you’d think. In 114 games and 506 plate appearances between the Midwest and California leagues, Thomas slashed .300/.379/.450 with 10 home runs, 15 stolen bases (57.7%) and a double digit walk rate (20.8 K%). The 140 wRC+ in Thomas’ first full season speaks for itself. There’s a lot of polish within this profile, but there’s still a couple of questions we need answered. Will the teenager hit for more power when he finally faces like-aged pitchers (22.9 Hard% last season)? Will he become more efficient stealing bases, or will that part of his game dwindle as he draws closer to a big league debut? The answers to those questions will play key roles in determining whether Thomas eventually makes his MLB debut as a top-50 prospect, or if he’ll continue to slot in the back-half of the top-100. The outfielder should reach the Southern League this season. Diamondbacks Rank: 4th
65. Geraldo Perdomo, SS, ARI. Age: 20
“Ronny Mauricio without the hype” was the way Perdomo was described to me by someone who watched both shortstops during the 2019 season. I love when an organization drops subtle hints that tell us how they value a prospect. In my eyes, the Diamondbacks did that at the deadline this summer when they shipped Jazz Chisholm to Miami for Zac Gallen. Then, they seemingly reaffirmed this notion by shipping Liover Peguero to Pittsburgh this season in the Starling Marte trade. How do you evaluate those trades and not think the organization views Perdomo as their future, everyday shortstop? The 20-year-old is unrefined in a few different areas: he hasn’t unlocked much power in-game yet and his stolen base efficiency must improve (66.7% success rate in 2019) in order for the above average speed to truly play as part of the profile. What I do love about Perdomo is the plate discipline, which is as elite as it comes in the minor leagues (14.0 BB%, 13.4 K% and .397 OBP across two levels in 2019). He’s also silky smooth at the 6 and is a favorite to stick at the position even when he fills-out his 6-foot-3 frame. I suspect the 20-year-old will take most of his cuts in the Southern League in 2020, putting him on a timeline to debut in the desert sometime in 2021. Perdomo will be a 21-year-old big leaguer if that comes to fruition, though a recently-extended Nick Ahmed will have a say in the rapidness of the former’s ascension. Diamondbacks Rank: 3rd
64. Jeter Downs, INF, BOS. Age: 21
Statistically, there’s no prospect on this list who reminds me more of José Ramirez than Jeter Downs. The infielder slashed .276/.362/.526 with 24 home runs, 24 stolen bases (75%) and a double digit walk rate in 119 games and 535 plate appearances between the California League and Texas League last season. Like Ramirez, Downs accesses his power by utilizing a heavy pulled fly ball approach, which will allow the 21-year-old to reach his power potential while posting low BABIPs and sacrificing a bit of on base skills. Unfortunately, scouts worry that Downs’ perceived running ability is a bit of a façade (he’s a below average runner with great instincts)—which makes it hard to project continued stolen base output with any amount of certainty. The 21-year-old has mostly played shortstop throughout the early stages of his professional career, but most evaluators think his long-term home is at the cornerstone. With the current approach, Downs’ big league home run upside likely falls somewhere between 25-30. But since he may only hit .260 BA/.340 OBP while doing so, this profile needs the infielder to prove—without possessing above average speed—he can continue stealing bases against the best catchers in the world. Hopefully the 2020 season brings us clarity, though patience will be a virtue as Downs adjusts to his third organization in as many seasons. Red Sox Rank: 1st
63. Matthew Liberatore, SP, STL. Age: 20
In the VIP section of this list, Liberatore became the common comp I used for ‘what you see is what you get’ pitching prospects. That’s not an insult—it simply means we can more accurately evaluate Liberatore’s current arsenal with eye on the future instead of attempting to predict what the stuff will look like after he ‘fills out’ or executes another common, maturation-based cliché you read about it with pitching prospects. Despite that fact, I do believe the 20-year-old’s 22.9 K% in the Midwest League in 2019 is the lowest such rate we’ll see from the left-hander throughout his minor league career. The impending increases will be realized with further arsenal harnessing. Liberatore’s fastball isn’t an analytical darling like that of former teammate Shane Baz, but he throws it hard and from the left side. The slider is only an average pitch for now, and a lack of a true second weapon versus LHB can be blamed for the reverse split issues in 2019 (lefties hit .290 versus Liberatore). But right-handers only .213 versus the southpaw, thanks largely to a curveball that could finalize as a 70-grade pitch. The offering has an ultra-elite spin rate, and further polishing of the pitch will unlock additional strikeouts on a start-by-start basis. It’s also the in-game development of both breaking balls that will be the difference between Liberatore becoming a strikeout viable, top-end SP3 at the big league level, or being a SP4 who only reaches a strikeout per inning at peak. For now, the delicious ground ball rate forms a solid foundation for whatever strikeout viability is in Liberatore’s future. The Cardinals are somewhat of an antithesis to the Rays from an analytical standpoint (though they’re reportedly in the process of ‘catching up’ to their competitors in the world of pitching data and analysis), but their track record in developing in-house pitching speaks for itself. I assume we’ll see a statistical uptick from Liberatore this season in the Florida State League. Cardinals Rank: 3rd
Recently, Connor Kurcon and I embarked on a data-driven journey in search of finding the players who were most affected by the juiced ball in the big leagues last season. Focusing on a certain strand of wOBAcon and a subsequently created ‘Benefit Ball’, here are our findings.
62. Jordyn Adams, OF, LAA. Age: 20
I originally made ‘in the world of uber-athletic Angels prospects’ the qualifier that led to a comparison between Adams and Jeremiah Jackson, but I quickly realized excluding Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh from said comparison would be insulting. The Angels’ farm system is so freakin’ athletic. Anyways, in the world of low-minors Angels prospects, Jeremiah Jackson stole the headlines last summer. But it was actually Adams—in my opinion—who had the more impressive numbers in 2019. Widely considered a long-term project since he was selected 17th overall in 2018, the outfielder was actually an above average hitter in the Midwest League, hitting 7 home runs and stealing 12 bases while—brace yourself for the best part—only striking out in 22% of his plate appearances (he also posted a double-digit walk rate). It appears as though both the approach and bat-to-ball skills are better than Adams was given credit for when he was drafted, which should allow the plus raw power and 80-grade speed (!) to show up in box scores sooner than we expected. The moderate counting stats are suppressing the actual tools in the eyes of box score badgers, but this arrow is pointing northward. Angels Rank: 3rd
61. Xavier Edwards, 2B, TB. Age: 20
The Padres fans in my mentions saying “Actually Xavier Edwards isn’t that good” following the Tommy Pham trade this offseason were the same Padres fans mad at me this summer when I wouldn’t rank Edwards higher. You hate to see it. Look: as unoriginal as this comp is, there’s a real chance Edwards is Dee Gordon reincarnate. With the current inside-out swing and a high groundball rate, I can’t project anything more than 5 home runs per season with any confidence. But that’s not the end of the world, because the 20-year-old should hit .300 annually with enough steals to put your team on his shoulders in the SB category in Roto leagues. Now a member of the Rays, it appears likely Edwards will engage in a do-battle with Vidal Brujan, the winner pairing with top-overall prospect Wander Franco to form the future double play duo in Tampa. If Edwards is the victor, he’ll likely slot at the cornerstone—which makes the Gordon comp all the more valid. Rays Rank: 5th
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Featured image courtesy of photographer Jayne Kamin-Oncea and USA Today Sports