Written by: Ray Butler
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Happy Hump Day! Today marks the third release of my top-200 prospect list, with my #161-180 prospects and my #181-200 prospects already published and yours to read.
We’ll soon be podcasting about the tail-end of my 2020 prospect list, so if you find a certain ranking interesting or simply want additional information on a prospect, keep your eyes peeled on Twitter.
Here are my #141-160 prospects for the 2020 season.
160. Luisangel Acuña, INF, TEX. Age: 18
From a statistical standpoint, Acuña did everything he needed to in the Dominican Summer League this summer to make us believe he’s trending on a path similar to that of his superstar big brother. The 18-year-old (17 at the time) slashed .342/.438/.455 with 2 home runs, 17 stolen bases and more walks than strikeouts (151 wRC+). Lovely. The problem with comparing the brothers is the dissimilar bodies. Thick hips and explosiveness at 6-foot and 180 pounds isn’t the same as possessing those same characteristics at 5-foot-10 and 155 pounds, and little brother doesn’t yet possess the same qualities that made RAJ easy to identify at the same age. It’ll be more of a sum-of-the-parts profile for Luisangel (granted, Ronald is a sum-of-the-parts player too. The parts are just otherworldly), but he still possesses some viable tools. There’s plus bat speed, a feel to hit and the appearance of stolen base potential (I worded it like that because I haven’t seen run times yet). We simply need more information and a non-DSL sample to truly get a feel of the potential here, but last summer’s success and the bloodlines alone are enough to land Acuña inside the top-200. The Arizona League should paint a clearer picture this summer. Rangers Rank: 6th
159. Logan Webb, SP, SF. Age: 23
So often this offseason, VIP members have DM’ed me with the same question: who are some underrated starting pitcher prospects you expect to make a big league impact in 2020? These questions often include the same phrases. “Under the radar”, “off the beaten path”, “outside the top-100”. Each time, Logan Webb is included my answer. You can do one of two things with the 5.22 ERA in 39.2 big league IP in 2019: it can either scare you away and lead you to omitting the right-hander as an end-game target in redrafts, or you can consider it a convenient ADP suppressor and pounce when the time is right. The arsenal is carried by a hellacious slider, a pitch that totaled a .158 BAA (.207 xBA) against big league hitters while producing a 35.3 Whiff%. Throwing the pitch more than 23.5% of the time (it should be around 40.0% in a perfect world) might be the biggest arsenal improvement Webb can make in 2020 and beyond. The changeup also induced a 30.9 Whiff%, but it was hit around much more than the slider. The Giants lack starting pitcher depth, so the 23-year-old has a golden opportunity to cement himself as a viable rotation fixture this season. Maybe there’s only high-end SP4 upside here, but it’s a low risk profile that should help you immediately. Giants Rank: 8th
158. Brusdar Graterol, SP/RP, LAD. Age: 21
Pre-trade write-up: Hot take incoming: Graterol’s fastball—the triple-digit fireball that helped create the hype that landed the right-hander inside my top-100 by midseason 2018—is actually the pitch that will hinder this profile’s strikeout upside. Despite the mouth-watering velocity, the 21-year-old’s heater has poor peripherals. A low-spin offering, the pitch has well below average vertical movement, which means—because of the pitch’s above average horizontal movement—its main goal is to induce soft contact rather than to miss bats. Despite averaging 98.8 mph with the pitch in his 9.2 big league IP sample as a reliever last summer, opposing hitters did not swing and miss at the pitch a single time. The fastball could potentially have such a negative impact on the profile that it could be ditched all together in favor of a sinker. Neither offering will miss many bats, but the sinker is likely better at achieving the soft contact goal. Graterol’s moneymaker (and only elite pitch in my eyes) is his slider, an explosive, high-spin pitch that should be the protagonist in the 21-year-old’s strikeout rate at the MLB level; I gave the offering a 70-grade during my live look last spring. The analytics of the changeup aren’t great and it doesn’t yet possess the fade of its peers, but it can still be an effective pitch since Graterol maintains the same arm speed as his other pitches when he throws it. When you pair the specifics of his pitches with a projectionless, high-maintenance body and a lengthy injury history (including both elbow and shoulder ailments), you understand the significant relief risk within this profile. With the Twins in win-now mode, Graterol needs to prove the depth and viability of his arsenal sooner rather than later before his deadly slider is forced to cash checks from the bullpen for good.
Post-fake trade addition: Graterol being traded to Boston doesn’t change a single thing about the concerns surrounding his arsenal. It also doesn’t change the fact he’s been unable to connect the dots on consecutive healthy seasons throughout his professional career. It could, however, lengthen his leash as a rotation arm if that’s the route Boston chooses to take. At some point this season, he might slot behind Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez, Nathan Eovaldi and Martin Perez on a team that won’t be seriously competing for a playoff spot. The AL East is obviously an absolute gauntlet of offensive firepower, but this scenario is about the best that Graterol dynasty owners could hope for. Boston has the developmental firepower in its front office to assist the 21-year-old in reaching both his real-life and fantasy potential, but I can’t in good conscience boost the right-hander’s ranking while banking on a complete arsenal overhaul and a change in injury fortune post-trade–especially with the same, violent head movement and front shoulder rip in his mechanics that played a lead role in his injuries both still evident today. And as a 21-year-old with a grand total 15.0 IP above Double-A, I wouldn’t bet the house on Graterol opening the season in Boston’s starting rotation. Or in the big leagues in general. That’s increasingly true if the Red Sox plan on stretching out the right-hander and rebooting his development as a potential starting pitcher, especially for a team that is seemingly headed nowhere for the next few seasons.
Post-actual trade addition: After the Red Sox gave the baseball world a head fake on the original, announced trade, Graterol was eventually traded to the Dodgers as the return headliner for Kenta Maeda. For my money, unless it’s as an ‘Opener’, Graterol will never start a game as a Major League pitcher. Of course, being a part of the Dodgers’ organization likely makes it easier for the 21-year-old to become a dynamic, lights-out reliever. He may even eventually be considered the ‘closer in waiting’ once Kenley Jansen’s stuff officially begins to erode. But it’s HIGHLY unlikely Los Angeles will ever view the right-hander as a starting pitcher throughout his big league career. Dodgers Rank: 8th
In January, I published an article on ten non-elite prospects with sneaky 2020 redraft value.
157. Alexfri Planez, OF, CLE. Age: 18
You’re probably already aware how much I love Planez. This is a 70-raw, 55-run teenager who’s largely flying under the radar in a lot of dynasty leagues and prospect circles. I was vaguely aware of the 18-year-old heading into the 2019 season, but Jason Pennini moved Planez to the forefront when he ranked the the 18-year-old 8th on his Arizona League top-100. That’s above prospects like Gabriel Rodriguez, Daniel Espino and many others on this list. And based on the raw tools, the outfielder should probably be higher on this list. However, a contact told me this offseason Planez is very, very raw in the pitch recognition department. Like, on the 20-80 scale, it may currently sit on the ground floor. Recognizing the 18-year-old is likely bound for the New York Penn League in 2020, I simply want to see what the strikeout rate looks like in a non-Rookie Ball league before pushing all my chips to the center of the table. But make no mistake about it, now is the time to gobble-up shares of Planez in dynasty leagues. A hamate fracture limited him to six AZL games last summer (complex evaluators saw what they needed to in XST), and there’s a good chance he’d be much more known (and the stats would be much more eye-opening) had he remained healthy. If Planez only strikes out in a fourth of his plate appearances (25.0 K%) in 2020, he’s a top-100 prospect this time next season. That’ll be easier said than done with an uber-aggressive approach in an underratedly challenging league. I recently included Planez on my 2020 ‘breakout’ list. Indians Rank: 11th
156. Will Wilson, 2B, SF. Age: 21
I was really high on Wilson pre-draft. I saw potential for a plus hit tool and above average game power, both of which would pop from second base. The post-draft takeaways from the Pioneer League were far less rosy, with terms and phrases like ‘maxed out’, ‘no plus tool’ and ‘sum of the parts’ littered throughout reports that mostly give the infielder five average tool grades. The Angels enticed the Giants to take-on Zack Cozart’s horrific contract by including Wilson in the deal. With Los Angeles in the market for big-name free agents, I assume the trade isn’t meant to speak poorly of Wilson’s outlook. The Giants subsequently announced the 21-year-old will play both second and third base in 2020, though the cornerstone figures to be Wilson’s future defensive home. He has a chance to move quickly through the minors, with impending performances in the South Atlantic and California Leagues likely giving us a better idea of the fantasy outlook. FYPD Rank: 24th, Giants Rank: 7th
155. Angel Martinez, INF, CLE. Age: 18
With so many promising other tools, it’ll probably be the development of power that dictates Martinez’s future standing on this list. For now, the offensive profile leans on a solid approach, above average bat-to-ball skill and plus speed he should be able to maintain. He also started at least twelve different games at second base, third base and shortstop in the Dominican Summer League last summer, which is a defensive trait I hope he maintains throughout his professional career. Martinez posted a 134 wRC+ in 56 DSL games despite only hitting 1 home run. He also slashed .306/.402/.428 with 11 stolen bases. There are certainly positive reports about the infielder’s power potential: the hands and bat speed are absolutely electric, and the lower body is already engaged in the swing. Once Martinez fills out his 6-foot frame, the power output should naturally increase. The Indians are gridlocked throughout the infield in the low-minors, so it remains to be seen whether Martinez will be placed in the Arizona League or New York Penn League this summer. Indians Rank: 10th
154. Kameron Misner, OF, MIA. Age: 22
If you can see past the endearing ‘Baby Yelich’ comps made by not-salty-at-all Marlins fans, you very quickly realize Misner possesses tools that are both very real and very loud. At the very least, it’s plus raw power with above average speed and defensive skills as a professional. If you’re bullish on the 22-year-old, it’s probably 70-grade raw and enough athletic longevity to maintain 60-grade speed and remain in center field throughout most his career. The truth—in all likelihood—lies somewhere in the middle. I’m not a big believer in ever using a 65 for a prospect’s tool grade, but that’s truly where Misner’s raw power currently falls for me. The speed will settle in the above average (55) range, and Misner himself will settle in right field. There’s a real chance for fantasy goodness here, especially in OBP leagues. There are swing-and-miss concerns in the hit tool—and the skill itself was exposed a bit versus SEC competition last season—but some of those issues will be nullified by a walk rate that should remain above ten percent consistently. If the outfielder can simply find a way to hit .260 at the big league level, we might be talking about a top-100 player in redraft leagues. FYPD Rank: 20th, Marlins Rank: 9th
153. Sam Hilliard, OF, COL. Age: 26
For a while now, Hilliard has been a fun prospect to discuss amongst other writers and analysts. A tooled up, 6-foot-5, 240 lb. outfielder is often the stuff of dreams. But despite fantastic seasons at various levels of the minor leagues, it’s been long thought that Hilliard was simply too buried on Colorado’s organizational depth chart to ever get a legitimate shot at everyday, big league playing time. That changed at the tail-end of last season, thanks to injuries and general ineffectiveness. Hilliard more than held his own in the 87 plate appearance sample he was given, hitting seven home runs, stealing two bases and posting a 138 wRC+ (the 26.4 K% was also lower than his MiLB career average). Perhaps more important than the statistics were the Statcast numbers he provided: a 93rd percentile sprint speed, a top-100 Hard%, a top-70 average Exit Velocity and a 129th-ranked xwOBA (the last three are with tinkered minimum plate appearances). Opportunity will continue to be Hilliard’s largest hurdle to climb in 2020 (thanks, Ian Desmond and the Rockies’ front office), and swing-and-miss issues might eventually plague the production even if he is given a substantial number of plate appearances in a big league season. Still, the success the 26-year-old found in his first taste against big league pitching (both in the box score and according to Statcast) paired with the long track-record of success throughout the minor leagues makes Hilliard an uber-intriguing option moving forward. As of now, he’ll be fighting against Desmond and Raimel Tapia (and Garrett Hampson?) for playing time in the Rockies’ outfield. With Desmond slated to make $15 million and Tapia out of options (Hilliard has three), I fear the worst about the 26-year-old’s early-season outlook—and that’s before you figure Hampson into the equation. Do yourself a favor and laugh at this before scrolling down: Hilliard slashed .262/.335/.558 with 109 R, 35 HR, 101 RBI and 22 SB in 126 Triple-A games last season. Those numbers were good for a whopping 107 wRC+ in the Pacific Coast League. That league was BANANAS offensively in 2019. Rockies Rank: 3rd
152. Brady Singer, SP, KC. Age: 23
Singer’s largest proponents love him so much because of his bulldog mentality. He checks a lot of the ‘grit’ boxes: he goes right at hitters and often wears his emotions on his sleeve while pitching. He’s durable. He’s got plus command and ‘knows how to pitch’. Even his up-tempo delivery has a bit of gamesmanship to it. When you pair all of that with the stuff, though, it spells SP4. The right-hander doesn’t possess a true ‘out’ pitch, relying on a sinker, slider and changeup that all flash above average but not plus. The changeup specifically can be inconsistent at times, and it causes some splits issues versus lefties at times (.352 OBP in 2019). Reports on the work ethic are astounding, so at this point it’s easy to believe Singer will find ways to optimize his arsenal while utilizing his plus command. Even if (when?) that happens, I still don’t believe Singer will miss the bats to ever roam into SP3 territory. Still, there’s plenty of room for high-floor SP4s with reliable WHIPs in dynasty leagues. Royals Rank: 6th
151. Hudson Head, OF, SD. Age: 18
When a team goes out of their way to show you how they value a player, listen to them. Especially if that team has proven it can correctly value and develop prospects. When he was drafted 84th overall last summer, Head’s slot value was $721,900. He signed for $3 million. That certainly raised eyebrows, then the 18-year-old performed well offensively in the Arizona League in 32 games and 141 plate appearances (119 wRC+). This is currently a fairly well rounded profile that should add explosion with further physical development. If he reaches his ceiling, Head will be a 55-hit, 55-raw, 60-speed center fielder. That’s a real-life and fantasy star. A reasonable floor is 50-50-60, which would lead a more sum-of-the-parts player who could struggle to breakthrough as an everyday player on a loaded Padres’ roster. A lot of folks believe the outfielder will one day be known as the steal of the 2019 draft. Already ranking as a top-200 fantasy prospect and being selected early in FYPDs despite being a third round pick, it appears the dynasty community agrees. FYPD Rank: 23rd, Padres Rank: 6th
150. Cole Winn, SP, TEX. Age: 20
If you took a quick look at Winn’s stats from his first full season, you would assume this is purely a stuff and pedigree-based ranking. But upon closer examination, Winn’s second-half performance last summer was much more indicative of the pitcher the Rangers hoped they were getting with the 15th overall pick in 2018. From July 1st to the end of the season, the right-hander posted a 3.04 ERA, striking out 43 and walking 24 in 47.1 IP (.203 BAA). But if you’re pessimistic like me, the first thing you noticed with those numbers was the walk rate, an issue that led to a 4.56 BB/9 and pedestrian 9.5 K-BB% during that time frame. Those numbers were actually an improvement from Winn’s first seven starts of 2019, a sample in which the then teenager allowed a .281 BAA and walked 15.3% of the batters he faced (6.33 BB/9, 7.1 K-BB%). The right-hander was labeled with above average command when he was drafted, so improved consistency (and better body control per a contact) will be key for Winn to evolve into the pitcher the Rangers thought they were getting in the first round two summers ago. On his best days, the right-hander flashes a solid fastball and two plus breaking balls. Moving forward, it’ll be all about how often we see that version of the 20-year-old. Rangers Rank: 5th
149. Mark Vientos, 3B, NYM. Age: 20
The statistical output dipped in 2019, but I keep hearing good things about Vientos this offseason. Columbia’s home track was so pitcher-friendly that the third baseman actually did most of his damage on the road last season: he hit 8 of his 12 home runs away from home, and each third of his slash was better on the road than in the friendly confines of Segra Park (including a SLG that was .471 on the road and .360 at home). It’s true the Mets’ position playing prospects were statistically weak offensively in 2019, but I wonder what role the home/away disparity played in the 20-year-old being named the Mets’ minor league hitter of the year. The walk rate nearly dropped 10% from the Appy to the Sally, so I’m interested to see which direction it travels in the Florida State League in 2020. Scouts still fully believe in the plus-or-better raw power, and the 20-year-old’s Hard% of 28.8% was above average amongst qualified minor league hitters. Only one qualified hitter surpassed the 20 home run mark in the FSL in 2019; if Vientos can accomplish that feat this season as a 20-year-old, he could re-establish himself as a top-100 prospect on this list. Mets Rank: 5th
148. Brett Baty, 3B, NYM. Age: 20
One of the most polarizing First Year Players within the prospect industry. Leading up to last summer’s draft, I was told (basically preached to) a handful of times how important it was for Baty to exhibit his offensive aptitude post-draft. As you know, the 20-year-old was much older than a typical prep draft prospect (he’s seven months older than Bobby Witt Jr., which is not unsubstantial when making a first round pick). The Mets grabbed Baty at 12th overall, and the infielder spent the latter portion of the summer at three different levels in Rookie Ball and Short Season. In most facets, Baty answered the call, slashing .234/.368/.452 with 7 home runs and a 131 wRC+ (.218 ISO) in 51 games and 228 plate appearances. If you’re a dynasty player, that sample is exactly what you wanted to see if you’ve already taken the plunge on the 20-year-old. Pessimistically speaking, Baty struck out in 28.5% of his plate appearances and didn’t display many traits of a prospect with an above average hit tool (a label I’ve seen assigned to Baty on other industry sites). The approach is passive—an astounding 43.9% of his plate appearances ended with a walk or strikeout—and the spray chart was a bit pull heavy. Neither of those facts are necessarily bad or damning whatsoever (OBP leagues all day, baby), I simply don’t think Baty will be ever be the .280 hitter a 55-hit label suggests. In his write up on the infielder, industry pal John Calvagno suggested the swing path may need to be tinkered with in order for Baty to ever unlock his full, game-changing power potential. If the Mets agree with John, altering the swing path without further increasing the strikeout rate will be an important tight-wire act. Opinions are split on whether Baty will stick at third or transition across the diamond, but New York firmly believes he’s adequately equipped to handle the hot corner throughout the majority of his career. It’s become a cliché comp, but there’s a reason it’s so popular: if Baty performs to expectation in 2020, he’ll be evaluated in the same breath as like-bodied Nolan Gorman next offseason. FYPD Rank: 22nd, Mets Rank: 4th
147. Andy Pages, OF, LAA. Age: 19
My best peripheral find of 2019. I wrote-up Pages (unfortunately pronounced ‘Pah-hez’) in the Ramblings back in July, touting his feel to hit and evident power despite not physically overwhelming opposing pitching (a trait we often see in Rookie leagues that skews outlook perception). The 19-year-old finished his impressive stint in the Pioneer League with a jaw-dropping 165 wRC+, slashing .298/.398/.651 with 19 home runs in just 63 games and 279 plate appearances. The wRC+ was the highest mark for an 18-year-old in the Pioneer League in the last 15 years (h/t @CespedesBBQ). The swing includes a big leg kick, so the 18-year-old will likely fight swing-and-miss issues throughout his development (28.3 K% last summer). Luckily, some of those issues could be nullified by a walk rate that currently sits at 11.2% thru 115 career games. Also, don’t let the seven stolen bases in the Pioneer League skew your perception of the tools the outfielder brings to the table; he’s an average runner who has a 56.6% SB success rate in two seasons. The batted ball profile lends itself to pulled fly balls, so the .364 BABIP in 2019 should descend once Pages debuts in full season ball. That’ll negatively impact the slash numbers to at least some extent, but the outfielder finds the barrel frequently (the exit velocities are nutty) and should continue to hit for power regardless of level. That will be the carrying tool moving forward, especially when you consider the teenager is a work in progress defensively and, despite possessing a plus arm, may someday be best suited as a team’s primary designated hitter. While it’s obviously a bummer that Pages is no longer in the Dodgers’ almighty developmental system, it would be premature to penalize the teenager’s outlook too much (or, in this case, at all) without statistical evidence to support the alteration. Dodgers Rank: 7th
146. Michael Toglia, 1B, COL. Age: 21
FanGraphs is such valuable tool for anyone who loves prospects. I’m personally going through a bit of Rockies’ prospect fatigue, but something in their recent write-up on Toglia struck a chord with me. “He’s a switch-hitting first baseman with power who is also a plus defender, which puts him in a small, 21st century team picture with Lance Berkman, Mark Teixeira and Carlos Santana.” That is elite company with an impressive track record of success. Other than the loudness of the tools, the best part of Toglia’s outlook is the glaring organizational hole at first base for the Rockies. I assume Colorado will be aggressive with the 21-year-old in 2020, with at-bats in the Eastern League by the end of the season a distinct possibility. In a perfect world, Toglia is a top-10 redraft first baseman by 2023. In my mind, he could pair with Nolan Arenado to complete the Rockies’ version of Matt Olson and Matt Chapman. FYPD Rank: 21st, Rockies Rank: 2nd
Have you weaponized your Twitter for the upcoming baseball season?
145. Lewin Diaz, 1B, MIA. Age: 23
Sometimes, it’s weird what a trade can do for a prospect’s value. As collateral in the Sergio Romo trade, Diaz went from a basically forgotten man in the Twins’ system to the future everyday first baseman for the Marlins. I was further impressed by Miami’s open and public adoration of the 23-year-old, basically admitting they were willing to part with more value than they were comfortably with to secure Diaz becoming a part of their organization. The first baseman was fairly unlucky post-trade, slashing just .200/.279/.461 with a .188 BABIP despite a pedestrian 35.2 Pull% (perhaps the high FB% is partly to blame). The full season numbers paint a better picture: .270/.321/.530 with 27 home runs and a 31.9 Hard% (which is well above average). I’m not in love with the low walk rate (6.6%) for a first base only prospect, but I’m willing to at least partially set it to the side in order to dwell on the opportunity and power upside Diaz possesses. From a statistic standpoint, the 23-year-old possesses the offensive ceiling of Jose Abreu Lite. Marlins Rank: 8th
144. Francisco Alvarez, C, NYM. Age: 18
A fun fact: Since publishing my first prospect list in 2017, I’ve never included a teenage catching prospect who is yet to debut in full season ball inside my top-200. Until now. The reports on Alvarez are undeniable; if they hold true in 2020, the 18-year-old could quickly push for the title of best catching prospect in baseball outside of Adley Rutschman. Alvarez was ridiculous in the Gulf Coast League and Appalachian League, slashing .312/.407/.510 with 7 home runs and a double-digit walk rate in 42 games and 187 plate appearances. The numbers added up to a jaw-dropping 155 wRC+ despite the catcher playing against much older competition, so it’s easy to understand the excitement surrounding Alvarez as it heads toward his full season debut this season. Scouts seem to agree with the hype—I reached out to a contact to make sure I wasn’t missing anything unique about the profile. His initial response? “He’s really, f*****g good.” Okay then. There were worries that a 5-foot-11, 220 lb. frame might put Alvarez in the same bucket as someone like Alejandro Kirk, but the 18-year-old is filled-out and chiseled compared to what one would think when reading that height and weight. We need to see the offensive success in a full season atmosphere before we consider a move into the top-100 (there’s a chance the Mets narrow his stance in hopes he unlocks more power), but there’s not much negative to be said or seen on the catcher as of yet. Mets Rank: 3rd
143. Jackson Kowar, SP, KC. Age: 23
2019 was a big season in Kowar’s development because there’s now a real sense the curveball might get to league average. For a right-hander who traditionally leaned on his fastball and changeup, this is a big deal. The changeup is the hat hanger of the arsenal. The pitch sits in the mid-80s and features downward movement with arm-side run. The offering also plays-up thanks to the fact Kowar’s arm speed doesn’t decelerate when he throws the pitch. The hope—with further, future optimization and pitch design—is that the fastball is more effective than it should be thanks to the threat of the changeup. The heater sits 94-95 T98 with average spin. The right-hander is a short strider, so the perceived velocity of the pitch is a bit lower. The 23-year-old basically split his time evenly last season between the Carolina and Texas League. After being promoted to Double-A in June, Kowar actually increased his strikeout rate from 21.2% to 25.2%. Perhaps the 9.44 K/9 is a sign of things to come? Kowar should make his big league debut at some point in 2020. The curveball needs to continue to make strides, but for now, there’s low-end SP3 within this profile. Royals Rank: 5th
142. Abraham Toro, 3B, HOU. Age: 23
Blocked path is blocked: without an injury or trade, Toro won’t be an everyday player at the big league level. The 23-year-old saw time at first base, second base and third base last season at various levels. Positional versatility rocks! Unless you’re a non-elite prospect in an organization that currently rosters Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve and Yuli Gurriel. In true dynasty leagues, this shouldn’t really borrow you. Toro simply occupies one of your > 50 roster spots and you utilize him on your active roster once Carlos Correa inevitably spends time on the injured list. But in any other format, the 23-year-old’s cloudy path to everyday at-bats is problematic. There’s a chance I should have penalized the outlook more than I did with this ranking, but I’m more apt to buy the tools and trust everything else to work itself out. Toro has a solid plate approach and broke out in 2019 by—get this—hitting the ball in the air less frequently. Astros Rank: 4th
141. Braxton Garrett, SP, MIA. Age: 22
Fully recovered from Tommy John surgery and back in action, Garrett lived up to the hype of a former 7th overall pick playing in his first full professional season. In 106.2 IP, the 22-year-old posted a 3.54 ERA (3.79 FIP) and struck out 26.4% of the batters he faced. The stuff appeared fully intact as well, highlighted by a low-90s fastball (T 96) with above average spin, a plus curveball (his best pitch) and a developing changeup that currently plays-up due to Garrett maintaining his natural arm speed. There’s mid-rotation upside here thanks to a mixture of stuff and pitchability. The arsenal will never drop your jaw, but the southpaw knows how to pitch and controls his body well. If there’s untapped potential here, it’ll likely come from the changeup gaining arm-side movement away from right-handed hitters. A third above average offering would allow Garrett to evolve from low-end SP3 to a pitcher who could really make his presence felt throughout the sport. Marlins Rank: 7th
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