prospects365

Farming After Hours: Brennen Davis

Written by: Dylan Matthews (@dmattprospects)

Follow us on Twitter! @Prospects365

This is the first installment of my new, recurring series that will focus on deep dives for underrated, unheralded prospects. Want a glimpse of minor league players who should be receiving more hype than they’re currently getting? Looking to ‘get in’ on the ground floor on prospects before your rivals do? You’ve come to the right place. Here’s a quick overview of how this series will work:

Who?

  • Name, Age, Team, Draft RD/J2, College/Country

What?

  • Stat line from the previous season
  • Tools (Current/Future) and Future Value rating

When and Where?

  • Level and ETA

Why?

  • The reasons you should be well-aware of this prospect 

Expectations

  • Floor (what’s the worst case scenario?)
  • Ceiling (what’s the best case scenario?)

Let’s start with one of the most high-upside prospects who’s currently a little off the beaten path…

Who?

Brennen Davis – Chicago Cubs – OF

Age: 19 (Born: 11/02/1999)

Drafted in the second round of the 2018 MLB Draft out of Basha High School in Chandler, Arizona (62nd overall pick)

What?

2018 Slash Line

.298/.431/.333, 0 HR, .035 ISO, 132 wRC+, 13.9% BB%, 16.7% K%, 6 SB

Tools:

Hit Power Raw Run
30/60 20/55 50/60 60/60

When and Where?

Spent last season playing Rookie Ball in the Arizona League and posted encouraging numbers.

Davis is an underdeveloped, project-style prospect, so I’ll cautiously predict an ETA of 2022

Why?

One of the keys to being successful in fantasy baseball dynasty leagues is acquiring prospects before they cost you an arm and a leg. Brennen Davis is a prospect you may look back on and laugh at the fact you ever rostered him. However, he also has a chance to become a prospect your league mates wish they had known earlier. Davis is a prospect with a ceiling capable of making your rivals lose sleep.  

To give you an idea of his current trade value, I acquired Brennen Davis in my 30 team (65 roster spots) dynasty league in a deal in which I shipped off Mike Minor for Davis, Nick Northcut and Jayce Easley.

Expectations

Floor – .265 AVG, 5-10 HR, 10-20 SB 

To truly appreciate a prospect’s ceiling, it’s wise to first become accustomed to the possible floor. Davis is currently a major project, and if you’ve seen his draft-day swing, you completely understand why. Davis is a great athlete, which will hopefully translate to defensive ability and allow the Cubs to be patient with the outfielder’s development. If the 6’4, 175 lb. frame doesn’t fill out as expected, Davis may be relegated to an OF4 or OF5 who provides great defense and on-base prowess. The name that comes to mind when comping his floor is Craig Gentry.

Ceiling – .300 AVG, 20-25 HR, 25-40 SB

Now that we’ve got the yawn-inducing part out of the way, let’s have some fun. Because of the physical projection amongst other aspects of his profile, Davis is a fun prospect to dream on. His frame currently is thin and wiry; scouts hope he fills out and, subsequently, develops plus raw power. The 19-year-old has plus hand and bat speed, so once he develops and gains strength, the power output should follow suit.

One of the reasons to believe in Davis is the organization he plays for. Just as we love the way the Yankees and Astros develop pitchers, the Cubs have an affinity for developing hitters (see: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ and Willson Contreras amongst others). If you haven’t done so already, you should start developing love affairs for certain organizations. The Cubs, in my opinion, are one of the stronger organizations in developing talent. As you can see below, their fingerprints are already on Davis’s mechanics following last summer’s draft. 

As you saw in the floor assessment above, it’s not that low. At least, it’s not that low compared to other prospects ranked similarly to Davis’s current standing. If the 19-year-old never reaches his ceiling, there’s still a good chance he becomes a big leaguer, which is rare for a teenage prospect entirely absent from top-100 lists.

But floor aside, the stand-out portion of Davis’s profile is the jaw-dropping ceiling. If he nears these gaudy numbers while hitting at or near the top of the Cubs’ order, Davis could score 100 runs while also compiling somewhere in the spectrum of 20 home runs and 25 stolen bases annually. Staring at these numbers, I see a player of similar fantasy output to Starling Marte.

For a player currently ranked on the wrong side of top-200 prospect lists, Davis is certainly worth keeping an eye on this season and beyond. He should get a shot at full season ball in Low-A South Bend to begin the 2019 season.

Follow P365 site writer Dylan Matthews on Twitter: @dmattprospects

Follow us on Twitter! @Prospects365

Leave a Reply