Written by: Trevor Hooth (@HoothTrevor)
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As always a big thank you goes out to you all for participating in Film Study Friday. Without you, it’s just an empty tweet and hashtag. Let’s get it rolling!
The premise of Film Study Friday is to get quick looks and opinions on prospects, with a deeper dive in this recap. I’m hoping to help followers and readers by getting my eyes on players, but also to just talk with the Twitterverse about what they see and think as well. If you want to get involved, I’ll tweet out the call for guys to watch on Wednesdays from my account, @HoothTrevor, or you can find it shared from the P365 handle.
We kick things off with Mets backstop Pat Mazeika.
Mazeika’s debut could come any time now. He’s a sweet swinging lefty whose M.O. has been bat to ball skills, but some added pop in 2020 fluctuated those numbers. He has the skills to stick at the catcher position long term #FilmStudyFriday https://t.co/UBerP8meu0
— Trevor Hooth (@HoothTrevor) May 15, 2020
Usually I don’t like to look at numbers for the tweet itself. In this case I cheated because I was just looking into Mazeika for information outside of what the film says. My moral gray area aside, he saw nearly a 10 percent spike in his strikeout percentage at the plate last season. The flip side to that is nearly double the amount of home runs from the season before, hitting 16 bombs in 2019. It’s a good approach though, he hovers around a 10 percent walk rate.
Mazeika starts with an open stance and utilizes a small leg kick to get going. It’s a smooth swing from that left side that should play at least a bit at the next level. He has yet to break into Triple-A, but the debut could come soon pending the playing of baseball on our continent. In my estimation, he’s at best a fringe starting catcher at the big league level.
We head towards the draft next with one of the more exciting prospects from this class, Garret Crochet.
Big lefty with a big fastball. His mechanics are a little funky that culminate in a true 3/4ish arm slot, but he’s got a really nice slider from it. He’s certainly got the size to stick in a rotation #FilmStudyFriday https://t.co/eRrNzd7sNr
— Trevor Hooth (@HoothTrevor) May 15, 2020
The Crochet slider is what I liked about him most. It’s a sweeping pitch that is just fun to watch. If you’re not into plus breaking pitches I feel bad for you, but Crochet’s got you covered there too. His fastball has been reported topping at triple digits.
One thing to look out for here is the funky arm slot from his 6-foot-6 frame. He’s got the size to dream on to live in a rotation and his pitch mix should be enough to keep him there. The only thing is he’ll have to develop his changeup or curveball as a third pitch. If he does, whatever team drafts him will be happy with his mid-rotation ceiling.
Why not add a two way player to the mix? Meet Clayton Andrews.
As a hitter he starts crouched over, simple load and swing. Seems like he gets to the ball pretty well. Seems like a swing built for gaps not fences. As a pitcher, in the minimal video he’s only thrown breakers and I love that. Mechanics seem pretty simple too #FilmStudyFriday https://t.co/0aBonyT2Ns
— Trevor Hooth (@HoothTrevor) May 15, 2020
A two-way guy who seems to do everything simply on both sides of the ball. His batting stance looked a little odd because of the noticeable crouch, but everything is simple. Because of that, I think the swing will play at least a little. As a pitcher, it was encouraging to see his breaking ball as early as I was in all of my unfairly small sample sizes.
The southpaw has been a reliever with some good strikeout numbers in the Carolina League, along with some save numbers. Those numbers and save opportunities were not there after a promotion to Double-A, but he still was solid. He didn’t get too many chances at the plate, but he slashed .333/.391/.381 across both levels. That’s about it with the bat.
Film Study Friday fans know that athletic outfielders are my thing. So thank you for this next guy. Let’s talk about Jeisson Rosario.
An athletic outfielder? I’m in. He’s got a lefty swing that looks pretty compact and to the point. What was impressive in the irresponsibly small sample size of at bats I saw was I thought was a good understanding of the strike zone #FilmStudyFriday https://t.co/l0NuvGotki
— Trevor Hooth (@HoothTrevor) May 15, 2020
He’s athletic and fast, which covers the main skills he possesses now. His hit tool is what will help him develop into a big leaguer, but he has help. His walk rate and knowledge of the strike zone is very good, especially for a 20-year-old. While he may never have a ton of power, he should be able to work himself into seeing good pitches and using his bat-to ball-skills to find success.
Numbers wise, his wRC+ was above average. Defensively, his athleticism and speed helps him to succeed. That same speed hasn’t translated to the basepaths, where he only stolen 11 bases at the High-A level in 2019. Still, between his athletic profile and his patience at the plate, opportunities on the bases should help him become more comfortable as he continues his development.
In talking with people about this draft, Jared Kelley’s name comes up around pick 8 and is, at times, still being brought up around pick 20.
I don’t think anything in my life comes as easily as upper 90’s does for Kelley. It looks like he barely has to try in his delivery. Flashes a nice curve and apparently there’s a changeup I didn’t quite catch. He’ll be interesting on draft day #FilmStudyFriday https://t.co/oPolz5rCAR
— Trevor Hooth (@HoothTrevor) May 15, 2020
As a draft prospect there’s not a ton of certainty where he’ll get taken. Some think he will go top ten and some see him lower than that. It’s quite interesting. That said, I like the guy as a draft prospect. In a lesser draft he might be solidified near the top, but that’s just not the world we live in this year.
The most amazing thing is how easy his delivery looks. Imagine how effortlessly you breathe and that is kind of how easy it is for Kelley to pump in the upper 90’s. That isn’t his only weapon either, as he also sports one of the best changeups in this entire class. The prep arm has a really interesting ceiling and I’m very curious as to how his draft day is going to go.
This next guy can hopefully shoot through the ranks like a lightning (Cody) Bolt-on. I love bad puns, I wonder if Ray will let this on his website. Editor’s note: Yikes
Looks like he has some good stuff. I saw a nice front door slider that froze the batter for a strikeout which was nice to see. His arm slot doesn’t look traditional, which helps his case too. He’s an interesting arm, for sure #FilmStudyFriday https://t.co/u85Hr00k7L
— Trevor Hooth (@HoothTrevor) May 15, 2020
I really do like the slider. It looked like he had control to both sides of plate which was exciting to see. His fastball gets some nice arm-side run as well. The slider is currently his best pitch and he also flashes a changeup. The development of that pitch will be the difference between rotation and bullpen for him.
After dominating at High-A, he got the call to Double-A where his FIP shot up three points. To be clear, that put him just above 4. His strikeout rates aren’t there. His current two pitch combo would be great in a bullpen role, but that changeup could help him as a starter. One other thing to watch out for is his injury history with his forearms.
Young and patient is always a nice combination to have from a bat, enter Jeremy De La Rosa.
Not a lot of video out there to find for De La Rosa, but he starts with a wide base and it looks like a daily long swing. That said, from load to swing it’s all pretty simple. He’s still a teenager too #FilmStudyFriday https://t.co/SpETAQKABn
— Trevor Hooth (@HoothTrevor) May 15, 2020
As mentioned, there isn’t a ton out there on him. Scouting reports rave about his advanced approach at such a young age. According to a report on Baseball America, he can get pull happy at times which leads to swing and miss. But again, he’s a teenager.
Both the swing and miss and patience check out in his Rookie League debut where he slashed .232/.343/.366 with a strikeout rate just shy of 30 percent. His walk rate was over 12 percent. He does have some raw power to tap into. Setting the stats aside, it’s equally as important the Nationals felt enough confidence in De La Rosa to allow him to skip the Dominican Summer League all together, instead allowing him to debut professionally in the Gulf Coast League last summer.
Raw power and Coors Field is always a fun dream, and that is one reason Julio Carreras is so fun.
Not a lot of video out there to find for De La Rosa, but he starts with a wide base and it looks like a daily long swing. That said, from load to swing it’s all pretty simple. He’s still a teenager too #FilmStudyFriday https://t.co/SpETAQKABn
— Trevor Hooth (@HoothTrevor) May 15, 2020
Not looking at numbers doesn’t make for the most clear evaluations sometimes. It looked to me like Carreras should have some power because of his natural loft. His 11 home runs in two seasons beg to differ. But, he does collect some average raw power grades so there’s room for the in-game output to grow. Either way, he’s fast and fun to watch.
He has yet to surpass the Rookie Level. His movements are smooth, but the swing is kind of long, which leads to swing and miss. What makes Carreras such a fun prospect is dreaming on his raw power from the hot corner. The 20-year-old can hopefully blossom into a very nice piece in Colorado.
It’s a crime that I had minimal exposure to Jackson Rutledge before this, but he’s quickly become a favorite for me.
Come for the 6’8” frame and stay for the curveball. Then rewind and watch that curveball again. I’m not a huge comp guy, but if he adds some zip, his size makes a connection to Nate Pearson fairly logical. Although Rutledge’s upside isn’t at that level #FilmStudyFriday
— Trevor Hooth (@HoothTrevor) May 19, 2020
If size were directly related to success, Rutledge would be one of the best players in the world with his 6-foot-8 frame. Still, he’s pretty exciting either way. He’s got top-of-the-rotation type raw stuff. I physically gasped when I saw that curveball for the first time, and he’s got another potentially plus offering in his slider. The fastball is reported mid-to-upper 90s and it might be his worst pitch.
Rutledge doesn’t quite have the ceiling that Nate Pearson has, but then again who does? With all the excitement around his stuff there is room to work on command. But for now, just enjoy his brilliance at the lower levels and get excited. Rutledge gets the crown for my favorite to watch from this round of prospects.
We head to Philadelphia’s system next for an infielder with some question marks, Jamari Baylor.
If there is power to Baylors game it comes from some really nice bat speed. A lot of it will depend on getting barrel to baseball. Still, an enticing power/speed potential if it’s there. On the other side of the ball, he looks pretty smooth defensively #FilmStudyFriday https://t.co/CK7FaueO50
— Trevor Hooth (@HoothTrevor) May 15, 2020
Overall, Baylor is pretty smooth on both sides of the ball, and that creates his offensive ceiling. His brief introduction to pro ball was shortened by injury after just 12 at-bats in the Gulf Coast League last summer. I wasn’t as entrenched in the draft last year, but the quick twitch ability of Baylor had him rise quickly as the draft approached. The Phillies grabbed him early on Day Two.
Right now, the bat speed gives Baylor some above average raw power to match above average speed. Getting a full season from him will help to know a bit more about where he’s at and what he might become.
Our last stop is with funky-delivering lefty John Doxakis.
Doxakis: Getting drafted by the Rays is never a bad thing. The lefty gets nice armside run on a low 90’s fastball. He also flashes a slider that he seems to like. Both are pretty good pitches. His delivery goes by in a flash once his leg lifts #FilmStudyFriday https://t.co/CK7FauwptA
— Trevor Hooth (@HoothTrevor) May 15, 2020
The lift-and-go approach in a pitcher’s delivery is a completely personal choice, but man is it interesting to watch. There are guys where if you blink at the wrong time of the leg lift, you miss the whole delivery. Doxakis certainly fits that mold and I absolutely love it. His fastball gets arm-side run, but overall he’s a pitchability-over-stuff guy.
He’s got backend innings eater written all over him. His big body and ability to throw strikes help him out quite a bit. Leading with a fastball/slider combination led to an 8.54 K/9 with a sub-3 FIP in his pro debut last year.
That’s it this week, thanks for all the names! Keep an eye out so you can get your request in next time!
Follow P365 contributor Trevor Hooth on Twitter! @HoothTrevor
Follow us on Twitter! @Prospects365
Featured image courtesy of the Hagerstown Suns