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Ray’s Ramblings: August 19th

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Written by: Ray Butler

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A combination of the beginning of a new school year and dealing with strep throat has really limited my writing time here lately, but I was able to sit down this weekend and develop one of the meatiest Ramblings of the season. Though my free time has been extremely limited as of late, the fantastic staff here at P365 has completely had my back. This past week alone, Shelly Verougstraete published her scouting notes on a recent look at Heliot Ramos, Joey Bart, Sam Hjelle, Zac Lowther, Dean Kremer and more. You can check that out here. John Stewart has also been at hard throughout the last week, profiling Travis Demeritte and his speculative value in dynasty leagues moving forward. Check that out here.

We’re rolling here at Prospects 365, and I hope these Ramblings serve as a kick-start to your week. Enjoy!

*extreme Joker voice* aaand here. we. go.

Two days after that tweet, the Yankees bumped Medina to High-A Tampa, and the 20-year-old will likely finish the season pitching in the Florida State League.

Medina was topping out in the mid-90s well-prior to his signing with the Yankees as a 16-year-old back in July 2015 (for a $280,000 signing bonus). It’s never—ever, ever, ever—been about the stuff for the right-hander. Four seasons after signing a professional contract, Medina (now 20) possesses a fastball that tops out in triple-digits, a power curveball that’s a true out pitch and a changeup that’s gone from flashing above average to flashing plus in 2019. Instead, the right-hander’s shortcomings stem from command flaws. In my preseason top-200, I described Medina’s command as “at such an infantile stage that it hasn’t moved on to solid food yet.” I ranked the athletic right-hander 199th at the time, though he didn’t make the midseason edition. For a huge chunk of the 2019 season, it appeared as though Medina’s command shortcoming hadn’t improved whatsoever—to the point it was completely obstructing the rest of the profile. In the 20-year-old’s first 14 starts of the season, he walked 55 batters in 58 innings pitched. 55 batters. 58 IP. That’s a ghastly 8.5 BB/9 and 18.9 BB%.
Medina has made six starts since the original 14-start sample, and the subsequent numbers can be seen in the embedded tweet above. It’s just six starts, but it’s easy to see the otherworldly upside when the command doesn’t hold him down. It’s hard to know whether his last six starts are simply an anomaly—meaning we’ll likely see some negative regression in his first few starts in the FSL—or if Medina has made legitimate strides in clearing the biggest hurdle of his development.
I’ve never seen Medina pitch live, but it should be noted that most scouts and evaluators who have seen him in-person believe the command issues do not originate from mechanical inefficiencies. Here’s an excerpt from his report on Fangraphs:

“Medina’s issues aren’t physical — his delivery is fine and his arm stroke is clean. Instead, the problem appears to be mostly mental. He’ll throw well in the bullpen, only to have things snowball for him in game situations. One source described his issues as stemming from a need for greater mental maturity and to not be so hard on himself, which are exactly the kinds of traits that come with general social maturity.”

In a recent MLB Pipeline Inbox, Jim Callis published that a club official told him Medina has looked ‘more comfortable’ on the mound recently than he has in the past. The write-up on the 20-year-old also included this nugget:

“He hasn’t dialed back his stuff at all — he averaged 97 mph during seven shutout innings Tuesday night — and hasn’t made any mechanical changes.”

If anything, it’s encouraging that Medina doesn’t possess a blatant mechanical abnormality that tampers his command. And before you spin the above quotes into an argument that Medina is a head case (in other words, spinning it into something it’s not)—please remember what you were doing when you were 20-years-old. Instead of creating a garbage take, let’s instead take solace in the fact Medina was nearly two years younger than his average competition in the South Atlantic League. He’ll be around three years younger than his average competition in the Florida State League. The right-hander has an abundance of time to develop both physically and mentally. He’s in a good organization to reach his potential in both facets.
D.L Hall has a BB% of 15.6% this season. Medina’s 2019 BB% currently sits at 15.7%. Hall has the benefit of being left-handed, but Medina’s raw stuff is probably better (albeit less expansive and marginally). Medina is also seven months younger, though his command issues are currently profound enough that it negatively impacts both his K% and ERA more so than it does for Hall (though the more-indicative xFIP has Medina at 4.25 and Hall at 3.58 [a much smaller gap than ERA] this season). When you add everything up, is there really such a difference in the two that one is a top-50 prospect in baseball while the other currently sits outside the top-200? If Medina can continue this run of success for the remainder of the regular season, it’ll be interesting to see the disparity between the pair’s rankings this offseason and next preseason.
One more thing before we move on and hit the home stretch of this week’s Ramblings. If these gains are real and Medina carries the momentum into next season, he’s likely to be one of the more talked-about pitching prospects in baseball next season. And when people talk about him, they’ll likely lead-off with the fact the right-hander possesses one of the better fastballs in the sport. It’s true the 20-year-old’s heater is probably a 65 or 70-grade offering, but its potential strikes me as more of a better version of Dustin May’s fastball than that of Justin Verlander or Gerrit Cole. Wtf am I talking about, you might ask? In most reports I’ve read, Medina’s fastball often has arm-side run with sinking motion. As the right-hander ascends to the upper levels of the minors and (hopefully) the big leagues, the pitch is likely to produce a ridiculous amount of soft contact. Broken bats galore. However, I don’t currently see the offering as an elite swing-and-miss pitch versus elite competition. Instead, the Yankees will likely work with Medina on refining what should be a deadly FB/CB tunneling combination, the latter of which should produce the bulk of the 20-year-old’s future strikeouts. I could also see the organization tinkering with Medina’s fastball grip or release point in hopes of the pitch gaining ride and further viability at the top of the zone. Of course, in doing so, they’ll want to make sure they don’t tinker with any legitimate gains the right-hander has made in the command department this season.
As you’ve read, there’s an absolute ton to consider and ponder when evaluating Medina’s 2019 performance and future outlook. I don’t have to tell you that the floor is that of a reliever, and there’s certainly a chance the command never evolves to a place that allows the right-hander to start against big league competition. But for the optimists, I’ll leave you with this: for the vast majority of starting pitcher prospects, a 90th-percentile outcome means said prospect finds a way to stick in the SP4-range with moderate fantasy viability throughout the bulk of their big league career. This is not the case for Medina. A 90th-percentile outcome for Medina likely means he’s become the best pitcher for the New York Yankees, one of the best pitchers in the AL East and one of the first names you think of when debating the very best pitchers in all of baseball. I hope that helps you understand the genuine upside here.

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Featured image courtesy of the Wilmington Blue Rocks

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