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Ray’s Ramblings: July 29th

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Written by: Ray Butler

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Happy Trade Deadline Week! The next few days should, hopefully, be fairly ridiculous and a whole lot of fun. With the Futures Game and the release of my midseason top-200 prospect list, it’s been more than three weeks since the last Ramblings was published. Let’s make this one a good one.

In my very next tweet, I mention that Kristian Robinson’s (keeping the skillset in mind) improvement in strikeout rate as the season progresses reminds me of a similar improvement made by a former top prospect…

My pick for breakout prospect of the 2019 season, Robinson is now slashing .331/.406/.600 with 9 home runs and 8 stolen bases in 165 plate appearances for Short Season Hillsboro. His walk rate has increased lately (10.3%) while his strikeout rate has dropped (26.7%). In total, Robinson’s numbers are good for a 180 wRC+. That seems pretty good. As time rolls on, I begin to think the Diamondbacks may ‘count their winnings’ with Robinson developmentally and keep him in Short Season ball for the remainder of the 2019 season. In doing that, they would then hope Robinson would perform well enough in 2020 to end the season in the California League (with Visalia, who’s in High-A). I actually discussed this scenario with Chris Welsh off-the-air on a recent podcast (details on that below), and we seemed to be on the same page. The 18-year-old has certainly earned a promotion to full season ball, but don’t be surprised or disappointed if he simply continues to rake in the Northwest League. If he sticks in SS, it’s safe to say the Diamondbacks will be more aggressive with the teenager next season.

Cruz Waters
AVG .306 .329
OBP .336 .373
SLG .522 .495
BABIP .382 .444 (lol)
BB% 3.6% 6.1%
K% 27.1% 25.9%

Some additional notes worth pointing out: Waters is actually younger than Cruz, and has posted those numbers at a level higher than Cruz has played at (though he was just promoted to Double-A Altoona). But with Waters likely sequestered to left field in Atlanta thanks to Ronald Acuña Jr. and Cristian Pache, Cruz certainly has a chance to be more valuable defensively at the big league level someday.
The comparisons between the duo are fun, but I’m going to focus on Cruz for the remainder of this write-up. The 20-year-old missed nearly two months earlier in the season with a foot fracture, but when you pull back the reins on qualification to all hitters with at least 140 plate appearances in the Florida State League this season, Cruz’s .522 SLG ranks third in the league. The two prospects who rank higher in the category are 23 and 22-years-old, respectively.
To my grave, I’ll worry about how Cruz’s (and Waters’, for that matter) current approach will translate to the big leagues. A high BABIP, high K%, low BB% life is a tough one to live in the MLB, and that profile often gets eaten alive out of the gate after a promotion. That’s certainly closer to affecting Waters than it is Cruz, but it’s important to keep in mind when evaluating the shortstop nonetheless. In all likelihood, changes will have to be made for sustained success to occur at the big league level. It’s that simple.
It’s still probably third base or right field defensively, but Cruz is four seasons into his professional career and still hasn’t moved away from shortstop despite his frame (6-foot-6, 175 pounds). The 20-year-old is extremely athletic for his size, and the longer we go with him at the 6, the more interesting the thought gets. As the sample in Double-A grows, Cruz remaining at shortstop into next season (next summer, specifically) would really add some legitimacy to him perhaps sticking at shortstop through at least the early stages of his big league career.
I’ll leave you with this: I’ll never forget the great John Calvagno, more than a year ago, comparing Cruz’s raw power to that of Rafael Devers in this write-up. Not everyone understood what that meant when John published in last June. Everyone understands it now.

 

Now, to this week’s meatiest feature….

A glance under the hood of Davidson’s outing confirmed what my eyes told me. The southpaw induced 14 swinging strikes (14.4% of his 97 total pitches) while compiling a 32.0% CSW, a metric I believe plays/will play a critical role in evaluating pitchers both presently and in the future.
But the fun in Davidson’s profile doesn’t begin and end with a single outing in July. Here’s some of the left-hander’s underlying metrics and how they stack-up amongst qualified pitchers in the Southern League.

Davidson SL Rank
K% 28.2% 4th
SwStr% 11.1% 19th
K-BB% 18.0% 4th
GB% 50.0% 4th
FB% 27.8% 2nd

Excited yet? Davidson is inducing ground balls and suppressing fly balls, all while posting a K-BB% that would rank in the top-30 amongst qualified big league pitchers. He also appears platoon proof, as right-handed batters have actually had less success versus Davidson (.206 AVG in 271 plate appearances) than lefties (.243 AVG in 130 plate appearances).
At this point, you’re either asking yourself “why have I never heard of this guy?” or “why is this guy not any top-100 or top-200 prospect lists?”, and both are fair questions. For one, most of the public hasn’t yet realized just how much better the 23-year-old has been this season compared his previous three campaigns of professional ball.

Other factors include the fact Davidson’s velocity has ticked-up a little this season (based on where Fangraphs had him sitting last season), and a reported arm-slot change has allowed his curveball to evolve from a 50 or 55 pitch (depending on who you ask) to a 60 or better offering. In my eyes, these changes have transitioned Davidson’s role from ‘solid, multi-inning reliever or spot starter’ to a pitcher who will definitively start meaningful games at the big league level.
Despite these drastic improvements, the left-hander still has some questions to answer. Some boxes to check, if you will. Davidson is shorter than his listed height of 6’2 (he’s either 6’0 or 6’1, my gut tells me it’s the former). He’s reportedly improved his physique since being drafted in 2016, but it’s hard to project additional height or solid weight being added to the frame in the future. Most importantly, the further development of Davidson’s changeup will play a critical role in determining if the southpaw can show flashes of a #3 starting pitcher at the big league level, or if he’ll simply settle-in as a backend starter with sneaky strikeout value. The pitch was too firm on Wednesday; I would love to see it eventually evolve into an 83-85 mph offering with the fade it sporadically displayed in his most recent outing. As you know, possessing a viable third pitch is crucial in the long-term success of a starting pitcher. So despite the 23-year-old’s fastball and curveball both being plus pitches, it might be the changeup (which is certainly below average currently) that plays the biggest role in the left-hander reaching his ceiling. The only run Davidson allowed in my look came via a two-out, left-on-left home run to the 8-hole hitter in Jackson’s lineup; he then allowed a left-on-left double to the opposing pitcher in the following at-bat. Eliminating these brief lapses will certainly help the left-hander continue his ascension.
I’ve seen Ian Anderson three times this season. I’ve seen Kyle Muller twice. Joey Wentz once. Jasseel De La Cruz once. From an individual-performance standpoint, Davidson’s outing last week was the best start from a Mississippi Braves pitcher I’ve seen this season. Of course the 23-year-old doesn’t have the stuff or the youth of Anderson. He doesn’t have the physical projection or the ceiling of Muller. But if I were to redo my midseason top-200 prospect list, Davidson would be included. He’s a name you should monitor closely, both in your dynasty league and as the trade deadline approaches. I certainly wasn’t the only one in the scouting section immensely impressed by Davidson’s outing last week.

I’m not going to lie… I’m really starting to fall for the Marlins’ farm system. Sixto Sanchez, J.J. Bleday, Isan Diaz, Monte Harrison, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett, Trevor Rogers, Kameron Misner, Nasim Nunez, Jose Devers, Nick Neidert, Connor Scott, Victor Victor Mesa, Victor Mesa Jr., Jerar Encarnacion and Lewin Diaz. There’s a ton of talent there, and it’s been a great season of development within the organization. It’s two or three seasons away, but Derek Jeter is truly building something in Miami.

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Featured image courtesy of the Buffalo Bisons

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