prospects365

Ray’s Ramblings: March 9th

Written by: Ray Butler

Follow me on Twitter! @RayButler365

No time for small talk, let’s get down to brass tacks. I hope you find this article to be a breath of fresh air compared to the abundance of non-sensical Spring Training-related tweets and content that have filled our timeline for nearly a month now.

  • I am throwing a dart at Jarred Kelenic being this season’s Lane Thomas. Holy hell. If you told me three years ago that I’d be typing *that* sentence in 2024, I would have asked for a rip of whatever you were smoking. Truth be told, I wanted the attention grabber to be “Jarred Kelenic is my pick to be this season’s Josh Lowe”, but the magnitude of the contrast in their respective preseasons ADPs (Kelenic has an ADP just over 200 the past few weeks, Lowe was mostly a waiver wire target in FAAB leagues in 2023) made it a tough comparison to sell. Kelenic being this season’s Thomas is also an imperfect comparison, but the difference in ADPs (Thomas had a 306 ADP in Main Events last season) is much easier to stomach. Basically, I’m saying don’t @ me. I’m also reminding you Thomas was a better standard redraft league fantasy player than Lowe last season. The name of the game here is affordability with the talent and opportunity to drastically outperform cost. Kelenic will open the season as an everyday player for—at worst—the second best team in the National League. I think there’s something to be said for (immense young talent batting towards the bottom of a stacked lineup for an organization with an elite track record at maximizing the offensive output of its position players + (no love lost with organization that just traded you + a decreased amount of external pressure after leaving the organization that just traded you)). Last season, the Braves gave Eddie Rosario 142 games and 516 plate appearances in left field; he produced only 0.1 more fWAR (1.4) than Jarred Kelenic, who finished the season with 100 fewer plate appearances than Rosario. Generally speaking, Truist Park is far more friendly to left-handed hitters (14th for LHH in Statcast’s Park Factor last season) than T-Mobile Park (dead last for LHH in Statcast’s Park Factor last season). Both Roster Resource and MLB Playing Time project Kelenic to hit 8th in the Braves’ starting lineup, which should give the 24-year-old the freedom to be aggressive on the basepaths while Orlando Arcia bats and Ronald Acuña Jr. is on deck (with less than two outs, anyways). Chris Sale is widely perceived to be the shiny new toy who will receive the ‘Braves bump’ in 2024, and there’s certainly some validity to that claim, as evidenced by an NFBC ADP that should settle inside the top-100 picks once Main Events roll around. However, I’ll stick my neck out and say Kelenic (NFBC ADP of 208.58 since March 1st) will the better fantasy player amongst the duo in 2024. (PS: don’t sleep on fellow Braves offseason acquisition Reynaldo Lopez, either). (PPS: why are we drafting Riley Greene 50 picks earlier than Kelenic?)
  • I’ve read a lot of prospect content this preseason. Examined a lot of prospect lists. A pair of prospects who have been consistently under-ranked or unranked altogether, depending on the size of the list: JR Ritchie and Nelson Rada.
    I understand the apprehension as it relates to ranking Ritchie bullishly in current state; after all, he’s a 20-year-old from a scary draft demographic (right-handed prep pitcher) who has logged just 27.2 innings pitched since being selected 35th overall in 2022. He’s currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery (May 2023), and the most likely outcome is a slow-played return in which Ritchie does not throw a competitive pitch for a Braves affiliate until 2025. By planting your flag on Ritchie now, you’re also risking being wrong if the mesmerizing stuff the right-hander possessed pre-injury never returns, or if it only returns to a lesser extent. I get it. However, the reasons and factors most prospect analysts will use to justify their current, low ranking of Ritchie are the same reasons and factors that have created an extreme buy-low opportunity for us in dynasty leagues and keeper leagues. The Braves love Ritchie, to an extent in which his name continues to be mentioned in conversations I have with people who are consistently in-tune with how the Braves view their own prospects. These are similar conversations with the same people who played pivotal roles in P365 readers and followers being early on both Ronald Acuña Jr. and Michael Harris II as prospects. I say that not to compare Ritchie to RAJ or Money Mike in any way, shape, form, or fashion, but rather to inform that similar conversations have benefitted us greatly in the past. If I were to publish a prospect list for the upcoming season, I do not see a scenario in which Ritchie would not rank inside the top-150. That’s with all context considered. We’re certainly playing the long game here, but if you can currently acquire Ritchie for the price of a top-300+ prospect instead of the price of a top-150 prospect, I’d pounce.
    You could make the argument there’s actually less gray area to consider when evaluating Rada, which is wild to say about an 18-year-old Venezuelan outfield prospect. It’s difficult to confidently discuss the floor of any 18-year-old prospect, but Rada’s knowledge of the strike zone, bat-to-ball skills, defense in center field and presently-plus speed—all of which he displayed while being more than four years younger than the average competitor in the California League last season—lays a solid foundation that allows us to dream on what appears to be an appetizing ceiling. You can’t knock the low home run output (2 in 540 plate appearances) and high ground ball rate (63.7%) while in Low-A without sandwiching those critiques around the fact Rada was a 17-year-old in full season ball. It was his first time competing stateside. It was his first time traveling over the course of a full season. Of course he’ll need to elevate the ball more to ever reach his real-life or fantasy ceiling. Obviously. But why are some prospect experts and dynasty players placing more weight on a “worrisome” .071 ISO as a 17-year-old international prospect in full season ball for the first time than a double digit walk rate, a strikeout rate less than 20%, 55 stolen bases and strong defense in center field… as a 17-year-old international prospect in full season ball for the first time? These same lists feature top-100s that are littered with 30% strikeout rates paired with .240 batting averages from prospects who possess lower defensive + stolen base floors than Rada. Said prospects were five years older but only two levels ahead of Rada in 2023. Make it make sense. The Angels have an interesting decision to make regarding the teenager’s placement to start the 2024 season. Does it make more sense for Rada to endure the hellish hitting environments throughout the Northwest League in High-A (namely Tri-City, where Rada would play his home games)? Or will the organization elect to challenge an extremely promising 18-year-old with a placement at Rocket City in the Southern League, where Rada would face a substantial advancement in tunneling, sequencing and arsenal depth of opposing Double-A pitchers? An aggressive (albeit not overly uncommon) invite to MLB Spring Training should provide LAA with much needed feedback that will help guide their decision regarding the center fielder’s initial 2024 placement. For the record, I’m assuming “stay the course and let him grind through High-A” is currently the betting favorite. I have seen guys like Yanquiel Fernandez, Arjun Nimmala and Dylan Beavers on multiple top-100 lists this offseason; I would take Rada over all three of those prospects. PS: should we fail to ever receive an adequate power output from Rada, it’ll be less of “this profile was always destined to fail” and more of “the Angels once again failed to refine a promising prospect’s offensive skillset in any meaningful way”. Elevate and celebrate, good sir.
  • Without diving too deep on the reasoning, here are some other prospects I believe are currently flying a bit under the radar relative to the general consensus of the prospect world:
  • River Ryan is the prospect who made me want to write about underrated prospects in this article. Some of the underratedness evaporated when he was ranked bullishly by both Keith Law and FanGraphs this preseason, but the buy-lowish window should remain at least partially open until the start of the minor league season. Ryan is a ball of clay who just struck out 24.6% of the hitters he faced between Double-A and Triple-A only a year after shifting his primary focus to pitching with a new organization (that is elite at developing pitching) after being drafted as a two-way player by the Padres. He sustained upper-90s fastball velocity while logging 104.1 innings in his first full season on the mound. The curveball is already a decent weapon versus left-handed hitters; if Ryan’s changeup takes a step forward before he exhausts eligibility, he’ll be universally considered one of the best young pitchers in the sport. The 25-year-old will have to settle with ‘top-50 prospect’ status for now.
  • Jefferson Rojas is already a bonafide top-150 prospect. Point, blank, period. I don’t think he’s a shortstop long-term, I’m skeptical we’ll continue to receive a double-digit stolen base output as he climbs the ladder of the minor leagues, and—in my opinion—a 45 hit tool is more likely than a 55 hit tool as Rojas matures. For the record, these are reasons why Rojas is not yet a top-100-or-better prospect. They are not reasons to dislike an 18-year-old who has already accrued north of 300 plate appearances in full season ball. Even if I’m right on all three “concerns”, adequate on base skills and a handful of stolen bases will pair nicely with Rojas’ emerging power, and the holistic offensive ceiling is high enough to provide real fantasy value even if the teenager eventually settles at second base, third base, or a corner outfield spot. If I’m wrong about any of those “concerns”, we’re likely looking at a future top-50 prospect, if not top-25. He’ll be widely discussed in 2024. The effortless oppo bomb off Cade Horton in the video below is damn impressive; I’m very bullish here.
  • Jared Jones and Cade Horton should be ranked very, very similarly on prospect lists this preseason, and that’s absolutely not a slight at Horton whatsoever. Instead, the former is outside of the top-250 on at least one publicly available prospect list. Do what you will with that information. Chasing this season’s Tanner Bibee will lead to a lot of dead ends, but if the goal is “perceived non-elite pitching prospect with the talent and opportunity to provide a huge return relative to acquisition cost in redraft leagues”, you can do a lot worse than investing in Jones in draft-and-hold formats or after (or at) pick 300 in FAAB leagues. The accuracy of this hunch will likely boil down to how committed the Pirates are to offseason acquisitions Martin Pérez and Marco Gonzales. The early returns from Jones this spring have been eye-opening, and manager Derek Shelton recently stated Jones is a legitimate candidate to open the season in the big league rotation. P365 has been a big fan of Jones since his draft year.
  • I have seen Chase Dollander omitted entirely from top-100 FYPD lists this offseason and preseason. While simultaneously being included in well-sourced top-100 overall prospect lists. I understand not including the right-hander in fantasy-focused top-100 (overall) lists due to Coors Field and the Rockies’ general inability to do much of anything correctly, but to not even include him in the top-100 on FIRST YEAR PLAYER lists? Come on. Dollander was a far better draft prospect than both Ryan Rolison or Gabriel Hughes. Dollander was from a far safer (if such a thing exists amongst pitching prospects) draft demographic than Riley Pint. There is blood in the streets here, and none of it is Dollander’s doing. That presents us with an opportunity to acquire at a discount before the right-hander ever throws a competitive pitch as a professional.
  • Joey Loperfido gives me strong Chris Taylor vibes. He’s a bit of an unheralded late bloomer whose fringy hit tool is overshadowed by juice throughout the rest of the profile and multi-positional eligibility. The 24-year-old has impressed thus far in Astros camp, and he’s a borderline top-100 prospect for me presently. He played five different positions across three different minor league levels in 2023, and his versatility could lead to a 2024 big league debut despite the fact he’s not yet on the Astros 40-man.
  • Cooper Hjerpe is a late inclusion here thanks to a slight velocity “uptick” (it was only two innings) in his first spring outing. If the southpaw’s fastball is 92-93 instead of 89-91 (where he sat at the end of last season), not only is he a top-100 prospect overall, but there will be some hilariously bad Cardinals prospects lists floating around the Twittersphere that will need to be deleted and/or edited ASAP. Need a larger sample size before we get too excited.
  • A brief list of underpriced redraft players for the 2024 season, listed in descending order based on March NFBC ADP in 15-team non-auctions: Fernando Tatis Jr., George Kirby, Oneil Cruz, Joe Musgrove, Bailey Ober (note: Ober is rare instance in which I go back to the well with a player in redrafts after profiting gigantically from said player in the previous season; I don’t think 2023 was the ceiling), Sean Murphy, Mitch Garver, Nolan Gorman, Rhys Hoskins, Lars Nootbaar (pending health… sigh), Tyler O’Neill, Jarred Kelenic, Starling Marte, Cristopher Sanchez, Charlie Morton, Yusei Kikuchi, Ryan Mountcastle, Kenta Maeda, Gavin Lux, Kutter Crawford, Ryan Jeffers, Luis Severino, J.D. Martinez (#forthebrand), Jose Siri, Louie Varland, Jonathan India, Zack Littell, Reynaldo Lopez (well worth jumping ADP late in drafts in case he earns the last rotation spot for the Braves to open the season), Graham Ashcraft, Jose Caballero, Tylor Megill, Adam Duvall, RYAN NODA, Jesus Sanchez, Jared Jones, Luis Matos, Joey Wiemer. My two favorite late round, dart throw closer specs are Jeff Hoffman and Shelby Miller. PS: Draft Ryan Noda.
  • Intentional 0-share players for me in redrafts in 2024: Elly De La Cruz, Nolan Jones, Blake Snell, Alexis Diaz, Wyatt Langford, Tanner Bibee, Tanner Bibee, Tanner Bibee, Tanner Scott, Salvador Perez, Marcell Ozuna, TJ Friedl, Bryce Miller, Mason Miller, Nolan Schanuel. Regarding Bibee: we tend to have no problem disregarding 5×5 output and using peripherals and underlying stats from a previous season to bullishly inflate a player’s ADP leading up to a new season. We struggle to ignore 5×5 output from a previous season when peripherals/underlying metrics lead us to a bearish outlook on a player who helped us profit a season ago. In an environment in which its possible for players to outrun their peripherals and negative regression over the course of a 142.0 inning sample, Bibee carried my Main Event staff on his shoulders for long stretches last season. The right-hander made me a lot of money in 2023; that doesn’t mean I owe him a debt of ignoring his SIERA, xERA, unspectacular strikeout numbers and high strand rate as I build my pitching staffs this draft season.

Follow me on Twitter! @RayButler365

Featured image courtesy of photographer Dave Nelson and USA Today Sports

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