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Ray’s Ramblings: July 6th

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Written by: Ray Butler

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Due to unfortunate* (*= fortunate) circumstances, I won’t have much time to write Sunday. Instead, I’ve decided to bring you the newest Ramblings two days early. Not too shabby, right?

After I unwind a little from Cleveland next week, my plan is to publish a piece on the players, people and experiences I encounter at my first Futures Game. I’m hoping for a great experience.

Let’s get down to business….

Short to the ball. Natural loft. You love to see it, especially from a 17-year-old with the tools Luciano possesses. There are questions about his arm at shortstop, and while conversing with Chris about the teenager, he wondered if Luciano might eventually move to centerfield. Stat line scouts who moonlight as detractors might point out Luciano’s 23.9 K% at the halfway point to “stabilization” (they won’t mention the 13.4 BB%), so I asked Chris about this as well. Hopefully his response put things into perspective:

“The pitching out here is mediocre. I don’t think he’s seen super advanced stuff to make a judgement on if he’s picking up spin and his pitch recognition. He eats fastballs alive. He makes really hard contact, but he’s aggressive as you’d expect a 17-year-old to be.”

The way I see it, Luciano is either already rostered or will soon be rostered in your keeper league. If you’d like to be hesitant/reluctant on the strikeout rate of a 17-year-old in his first taste of professional ball, so be it. But that likely means you’ll completely miss out on a prospect who has the *potential* to someday take his place amongst Ronald Acuña Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr. and Wander Franco on the Mount Rushmore of recent prospects. Yes, I realize Mount Rushmore only features four former presidents. No, I don’t care.

TLDR: Jansen has widened has bottom half, and it’s allowed him to feel more stable and balanced (and engaged with his back leg) at the plate. In this article from The Athletic ($), Jansen gives credit to widening his base to watching teammate Eric Sogard, who I featured in the Ramblings earlier this week. Regardless of the ‘how’ or the ‘why’, it’s certainly paying quick dividends for a catcher many thought would rise to the top of positional redraft lists by the end of the regular season. Despite the streak of unconsciousness, Jansen has been so bad offensively this season that the 2019 slash is just now up to .209/.281/.379. He’s hit 8 home runs and sports a 20.1 K% (74 wRC+). However, he gap between wOBA (.285) and xwOBA (.329) is still quite cavernous, so it’s possible Jansen very quickly (or very gradually) progresses to his expected statistical performance. The Statcast profile isn’t swoon-worthy, but it also doesn’t look like the profile of a player who’s clearly been below average statistically this season (h/t Savant).

Despite the recent bump, the 24-year-old is still available in 35% of Fantrax Leagues. If this is the case in your league, I’d consider making the transaction. I think there’s a good chance he outperforms catchers like Omar Narvaez and James McCann (and his .405 BABIP) for the rest of the season. For the sake of your mental health, I really hope you didn’t cut ties in your dynasty league.

 

Projecting catching prospects is always incredibly difficult, as we’re witnessing this season with players like M.J. Melendez and Ronaldo Hernandez. The difficulty in seeking clarity in Campusano’s outlook is increased even further when you consider the Padres already have Austin Hedges, Francisco Mejia and Austin Allen within their organization. Might Campusano become trade bait once the Padres become contenders? Will he continue ascending to the point he becomes to unquestioned catcher of the future in San Diego? 2080 Baseball’s recent report on Campusano paints a picture of a well-rounded player with adequate defensive skills. A 55-future role, above-average regular (albeit with extreme risk) who was absent from prospect lists prior to the season? Other than in deep dynasty leagues, the ground floor is still wide open here. Sign me up.

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Featured image courtesy of photographer Tom Szczerbowski and Getty Images

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