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Ray’s Ramblings: July 1st

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Written by: Ray Butler

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Everybody loves a good giveaway, right?

And how about a story within a story to start your July? If you’re a redraft fantasy player, these stash lists from staff writer Adam Ehrenreich are a fantastic resource. This article was also published today, so make sure you give it a read and get ahead of your league mates! For what it’s worth, I think his ‘honorable mention’ has a chance to be just as productive as anyone inside his top-10 for the rest of the season…

Let’s make this month the best of the 2019 season.

Chavez has broken enough hearts that someone definitely saw ‘Jesse Chavez’ above and decided to scroll down to the next write-up, but the truth is the 35-year-old has been extremely solid this season. Now stretched out and capable of logging substantial innings in each outing, Chavez has a line of 17.1 IP, 14 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 18 K in his last three appearances (two starts, one appearance behind an opener). I play in four fantasy leagues, and I currently have 100% exposure to the right-hander. A lot of that is because the price tag was practically free, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t at least a little optimistic about the 32.2 CSW% I witnessed Sunday versus the Rays and their solid offense. I wish the Rangers would tinker with his usage a little, but if nothing else we can ride the wave and dump while we’re in the black. Wild that prospects who are more than half Chavez’s age will make my midseason top-200 list.

Speaking of John, this happened last week…

I had the opportunity to meet and talk to John for about an hour at an Appalachian League game in Greeneville, Tennessee. Having known and interacted with him thru social media on countless occasions over the last two years, I can honestly say John is one of the most humble, hardworking people in the prospect world. Make sure you’re following him at @SALNotes on Twitter if you’re not already, and check out his site too.

The 33-year-old is elevating the ball more this season than any other season of his career, and even though he’s also hitting the ball harder than he ever has (85.3 mph average EV), his Exit Velocity still ranks in the bottom 9% of all MLB hitters. The 20.3 Hard% is in the bottom 1% (!!!!!) of all MLB hitters. Upon this discovery, I legitimately double-checked to make sure I was on Sogard’s Savant player page and not someone else’s. Seriously… how much longer is this output (a 136 wRC+) (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) sustainable with such horrendous supporting analytics? Probably not much longer, but I did add a share for $16 FAAB in TGFBI on Sunday. Probably as prudent as buying a pair of sunglasses in the Caribbean, but I’ll ride the wave of eliteness (because that’s what Eric freakin’ Sogard has been so far this season) from my Middle Infield slot until it fades. One more thing: EricSogardStatcastData might be the most uncrackable computer or account password in the history of the universe.

An aside to end the first July 2019 edition of the Ramblings… 

Before we shut it down for the week, I’d like to share with you one of the first important lessons I ever learned in the prospect world. With Ronald Acuña Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. recently being named to the 2019 Home Run Derby, I’ve found myself reminiscing more than usual. 2017 was the birth year of Prospects 365, and Acuña Jr. was the first prospect I ever fell in love with. Ever. And I was head-over-heels.

If you follow me on Twitter, you’ve likely seen my recent daily updates on Brennen Davis, a 19-year-old outfield prospect for the Cubs who’s ascended industry ranks at light-speed throughout the past month. I’ve vocalized my hesitance to tweet daily updates on any prospect, mostly because that designation is near and dear to my heart. Why? The only other prospect I ever tweeted daily updates on was Acuña Jr.

Acuña’s box scores from High-A Florida in the early months of the 2017 season became appointment research for me, and I learned a lot about rate stabilization throughout the spring and summer. When Acuña Jr. was promoted to Double-A Mississippi in May, he departed the Florida State League with a 6.3 BB% and 31.7 K%. Standing alone, those rates are terrifying. To some, they’d be cause for omission on top prospect lists or interest all together.

But Acuña was only 19, which was 3.8 years younger than his average competition in the FSL. He had also accumulated only 171 full season plate appearances prior to his High-A debut. Lastly, Acuña posted a 135 wRC+ in his 126 plate appearances with the Florida Fire Frogs, totaling 3 home runs and 14 stolen bases in just 28 games. So what’s the moral of the story?

Even today, strikeout and walk rates help drive the statistical facet of my prospect evaluations. They also drive a portion of the questions VIP members send me in my DMs on a weekly basis. They’re important—but they don’t tell the whole story. As we continue to find new ways to evaluate prospects here at P365, we love to see teenagers who post similar K and BB rates over the course of a summer or regular season. However, over time, I’ve learned to not completely discard a young prospect when they strikeout more or walk less than we’d like, even if the rates appear harmful.

I’m currently going through this with Kristian Robinson, who was my breakout prospect pick this preseason. He’s only accumulated 67 Short Season plate appearances this season (which is far from a “stable” sample), but he’s currently sporting a 29.9 K%. If I couldn’t see the forest for the trees, I’d be in panic mode right now. Asking myself where it all went wrong. Instead, I’m choosing to evaluate the situation as a whole rather than predominantly focusing on the negative parts: Robinson (who’s only 18-years-old and 2.8 years younger than his average competition in the Northwest League) is slashing .322/.388/.458 with a home run and 4 stolen bases in 15 games, which is good for a 151 wRC+. Not to mention, the strikeout rate is trending in the correct direction (3 strikeouts in his last 26 plate appearances). He’s going to be fine (as is Rodolfo Castro and the poor batting average you read about above), and I legitimately believe that.

If you’re new to a deep keeper league, dynasty league or prospect evaluation all together, keep this message near and dear. Believe me, I had to make several mistakes to learn this lesson. I ‘missed’ on prospects to learn this lesson. Whether you’re struggling to get past a young prospect’s strikeout rate, walk rate or inadequate slash numbers, simply remember that the flaw is only part of the story. Strike up a conversation with a scout or evaluator on social media who’s seen that prospect in person. Read as many first-person reports as you can get your hands on. Make sure you see the whole picture from a statistical standpoint. Heck, it might help you get your hands on the next Ronald Acuña.

Have a great week!

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Featured image courtesy of photographer Laura Wolff and the Charlotte Knights

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